Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping are gearing up to meet each other in Uzbekistan in what will be their first face-to-face meeting since Putin invaded Ukraine in February.
The two will meet on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Russian ambassador to China, Andrey Denisov, told reporters Wednesday, according to TASS. India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan also comprise the SCO.
“This summit promises to be interesting, because it will be the first full-fledged summit since the pandemic,” Denisov said. “I do not want to say that online summits are not full-fledged, but still, direct communication between leaders is a different quality of discussion.”
Xi and Putin did in fact meet on the margins of the Beijing Winter Olympics this February, less than three weeks before the invasion of Ukraine, affirming a union they called a “no limits” partnership, meant to represent their shared vision for the globe and agreeing to work together in opposition to “further enlargement of NATO.”
But this week’s meeting could mark an uncomfortable inflection point in the relationship between the two powers, given the failure of Putin’s Ukraine invasion to achieve its basic strategic aims.
In the early days of the war Xi was unsettled by the way Putin had carried out the invasion, according to a CIA analysis delivered to lawmakers on Capitol Hill, and since, Xi hasn’t outright endorsed the war in Ukraine. But Beijing has pointed out that China believes the United States is the “main instigator” of the war, echoing Kremlin talking points. Their summit could be a signal that although there might be some mistrust in the relationship, the two leaders are interested in deepening their relationship. Especially as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization emerges after Russia’s invasion more united than ever, Xi and Putin have even more reason to enhance their bond.
More than six months into Russia’s war in Ukraine, Putin is feeling the squeeze of sanctions and isolation. In addition to the sanctions, Russia has in recent days halted Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline flows to Europe and, in an attempt to pressure Europe to bend to Putin’s will, has said that the gas exports can return if the west eases up its sanctions on Moscow. U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken urged European nations to not bend to Russia’s “bullying.” And European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has indicated Europe will be bearing down, investing in renewable energies and increasing LNG imports from other countries, even under threat of a tough winter ahead, all in the name of throttling Russian revenues used to fund the war in Ukraine.
In China, though, Russia has a key partner for energy exports. Just this week, Russia announced it would be transitioning its gas shipments to China so they are paid for in rubles and yuan rather than U.S. dollars as part of an effort to reduce Moscow’s reliance on western and U.S. currencies. This year, China has increased its imports of Russian energy resources, and has boosted its purchases of crude, oil products, gas, and coal from Russia to $35 billion since the beginning of the war, compared to $20 billion last year.
Meanwhile in Ukraine, the Russian army has been faltering. Ukrainian forces have been rolling out a counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine in an attempt to seize back Kherson, which Russia captured in the first few days of the war. Ukraine has already been racking up the wins: Taking back two villages in Kherson oblast and, just in recent hours, advancing 50 kilometers into Russian lines in the Kharkiv region, taking back more than 20 villages, according to a Ukrainian general. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday Ukrainian forces have seized over 1,000 square kilometers since the beginning of September, too.
Putin’s forces are not doing well, even according to top Russian brass. Russian…
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