The second round of the 2022 NBA playoffs has the potential to be special.
Will the Philadelphia 76ers have enough to prevent Jimmy Butler’s Miami Heat from reaching the Eastern Conference finals for the second time in three years? Will Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and the defending NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks hold off Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics? And can Devin Booker, Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns overcome Luka Dončić’s Dallas Mavericks?
To answer those questions, The Athletic turned to NBA experts: a scout, a coach and a team executive. We granted each of them anonymity to allow them to be completely candid as they predicted the outcomes of each series. (Their assessments have been lightly edited for brevity and clarity. In addition, these interviews were conducted before The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported Joel Embiid had suffered an orbital fracture and mild concussion, ruling him out indefinitely.)
The Golden State Warriors’ second-round opponent has not been determined yet.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers
Scout’s outlook: “I’m picking the Heat. Kyle Lowry’s got to be healthy. When you get to the round of eight, injuries to key players start to matter more. But Miami’s got guys who can guard (James) Harden. Nobody can guard Embiid. … But (the Heat) do have guys who can match up with Harden, I think. … Lowry, to me, is like an on-and-off defender; he’d put his mind to (defending well in this series).
“Philadelphia’s kind of thin off the bench. Their starting five is excellent. But when they start going to the bench, is Georges Niang going to produce? Is Shake Milton (going to produce)? They’re going to have to play a lot of minutes. I like Miami’s depth better, with (Tyler) Herro, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson coming off the bench, even Dewayne Dedmon coming off the bench.
“I guess the negative for Miami is: Is
“With Embiid, you’ve just got to take the ball out of his hands, in my opinion. You know who’s a key factor? Danny Green. … I still think (if you’re Heat coach Erik Spoelstra) you have to let Tobias Harris try to beat you and Green try to beat you (instead of Embiid having that opportunity). … I think Bam Adebayo, with help, can slow Embiid down, and then you let the other guys try to beat you. … That’s going to be a very interesting dynamic. I’m sure (Miami will) mix it up, and also Miami plays a lot of zone. So I think you’ll probably see quite a bit of zone.”
Coach’s outlook: “I see Miami getting that one done. I think they have the best matchups for certain guys (on the Sixers). Now, they may not have the matchup for Embiid, but they do have the matchup for Harden, and they understand how to guard him. With the Heat’s physicality and their switching and their ability to trap situations, I give them the advantage in this one.
“I think Bam can be effective (defending Embiid), but the hard part with Embiid is he gets people in foul trouble. That’s the one thing that’s going to save the Sixers in some games — if there’s going to be a game where Bam’s going to end up in foul trouble or P.J. Tucker’s going to end up in foul trouble or Dedmon will end up in foul trouble.”
Executive’s outlook: “It’s going to be a really physical series. You have two physical teams that stack up with a lot of size and a lot of versatility. Who has the best game plan? It’s going to be a really, really good series. Harden having that game to close out the first round…
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