An unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season is poised to kick into action this week with the potential for two tropical depressions to form.
An area of stormy weather located several hundred miles from the border where the Atlantic Ocean meets the northeastern Caribbean Sea stands a 80% chance of organizing itself into a tropical depression “at the very least” over the next five days — with a 50% chance over the next 48 hours — according to an update issued at 8 a.m. Tuesday by the National Hurricane Center. A depression is the weakest form of tropical cyclone, a rotating low-pressure system that’s classified as a depression, tropical storm or hurricane, depending on its wind speed.
The system still lacks the well-defined center characteristic of tropical cyclones, according to the hurricane center. It’s expected to move west, and then west-northwest, at 5 to 10 mph toward the islands of the northeastern Caribbean over the next few days, the hurricane center said. If it reaches tropical storm strength, which requires wind speeds of at least 39 mph, it would be named Danielle.
The presence of wind shear near the Caribbean could be a hinderance to further development beyond a tropical depression, according to AccuWeather, the private forecasting service.
The system is one of two low-pressure areas being monitored for possible cyclone formation, as the Atlantic settles into the traditional peak period for the formation of storms. The most active part of hurricane season is from mid-August to the end of October, with Sept. 10 the statistical peak of the season.
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“It looks like September could really kick off an active period in the tropics. A steady wave train of energy rolling off Africa into the tropical Atlantic is expected to keep things active for a while across the Atlantic basin,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
A second area of interest is a tropical wave off Africa’s west coast has been given a 40% chance of cyclone formation in the next five days and a 20% chance in the next two days.
If it were to become a tropical depression, it is expected to be short-lived.
By late this week, the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development is not expected, the National Hurricane Center said early Tuesday.
After Danielle, the next named storm to form would be Earl.
With just two days left in the month, this could end up being just the third August since 1961 there hasn’t been a tropical storm in the Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.
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There have only been three named storms so far this season — Alex, Bonnie and Colin — with the last one, Colin, dissipating on July 3, meaning this 58-day streak is the third-longest time in Atlantic hurricane season history without a named storm since 1995.
The longest dry spell since 1995 has been 61 days, from June 18 through Aug. 18 in 1999. However, that two-month run of inactivity was followed by a frenetic conclusion of the hurricane season that featured five Category 4 storms (Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny) and the drenching Category 2 Irene, which achieved a rarity, with its eye passing over Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in mid-October. There also was a 59-day streak during the 2007 season.
Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.
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