1) Brazil (up 1)
It is three years since Brazil lost to anybody other than Argentina, a forward line of Neymar, Richarlison, Vinícius Júnior and Raphinha potent enough that Gabriel Jesus was left out of the recent friendly wins over Ghana and Tunisia. One defeat in 29 is an exceptional record; the only doubt is that they haven’t played a European team since losing to Belgium at the last World Cup. JW
2) Argentina (down 1)
The retirement of the majority of the fleet of outstanding forwards has cleared the picture for Argentina. Lionel Scaloni’s side may not be as glitzy as most recent iterations, but this Argentina side are harmonious and coherent and get the best out of Lionel Messi. They’ve gone 35 unbeaten and beat Italy in the Copa Finalissima in June – but the only other European side they have played since October 2019 is Estonia. JW
3) Spain (-)
Luis Enrique announcing his final pre-World Cup squad in a video of him cycling in homage to the Vuelta a España did not quite have the positive effect he might have hoped as La Roja slumped to their first home defeat in almost four years against Switzerland. But despite the Spain manager saying that Portugal have a better chance of success in Qatar it was his side who claimed top spot in their Nations League group after Álvaro Morata’s late winner in Braga. EA
4) Netherlands (-)
4 Netherlands ▶
Could this be Louis van Gaal’s grand finale? None of the goalkeeping options inspire confidence, but the 71-year-old coach turned around a qualifying campaign that had begun badly and has put together a balanced squad playing vibrant football. Perhaps they are slightly overreliant on the goals of Memphis Depay, but there is a sense of purpose and organisation about this squad that recalls 2014. JW
5) Germany (-)
Germany have the potential to win in Qatar but, like many of their traditional rivals, must address glaring flaws. Hungary exposed them with a supremely executed win in Leipzig, Hansi Flick’s first defeat in charge, and although they were largely controlled against England the way they buckled amid a 15-minute flurry will breed concern. They play in Flick’s attractive style but still lack killer instinct. NA
6) Denmark (up 1)
If Denmark were spooked by a narrow setback in Croatia last week, they did not show it. Three days later they toppled France with an outstanding performance and they are playing with the tempo that won so many admirers at Euro 2020. It helps, too, that Christian Eriksen has returned in such imperious form: he scored a stunning goal in Zagreb and then outclassed his French counterparts. A challenge for honours looks realistic. NA
7) France (down 1)
No nation has such a depth of talent as France, but none of the other favourites has such an array of players embroiled in various off-field distractions while there is real ill-feeling between the families of certain players. Add a provocative coach in Didier Deschamps who favours attritional football that rarely seems to get the best…
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