Hockey isn’t generally known as the most predictable of sports, but this year has mostly seen the NHL stray from that rule. So far in 2021-22, favorites in our Elo model have won 61.2 percent of their games, their greatest success rate in any regular season since 2005-06 (and nearly as good as the normally far more predictable NBA’s 64.8 percent rate for favorites this season). Of the top 10 teams in our preseason NHL Elo ratings, seven have gone on to rank among the current top 10 in points percentage, and eight have at least a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs. The only exceptions are the New York Islanders — a team the metrics have been dubious about for years despite several postseason runs — and, in a true shocker, the Vegas Golden Knights.
Vegas is currently just out of playoff position, sitting a point behind the Dallas Stars for the second and final wild-card position in the Western Conference. Our Elo simulations don’t like Vegas’s chances: We give the Golden Knights just a 35 percent chance to make the playoffs, making them the West’s ninth-most-likely playoff team (in a conference where only eight clubs make the playoffs). During a year when the favorites have almost uniformly been as strong as advertised, Vegas’s struggles stand out, particularly if we consider how high a standard the franchise has set from the moment it came into existence.
Going into the season, the Golden Knights weren’t giving off the vibes of a team in decline. During the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 campaign, Vegas led the NHL in goal differential with a plus-67 mark, tying the Colorado Avalanche for the league’s best record during the regular season. The Knights also beat the talented Avs head-to-head in a heavyweight playoff series before being upset by the Montreal Canadiens in the semifinal, finishing two games shy of playing for the Stanley Cup. It was the third time Vegas had posted double-digit playoff wins in the previous four postseasons; only the two-time champion Tampa Bay Lightning (with 45 wins) have more playoff victories since 2018 than the Golden Knights’ tally of 38.
For 2021-22, the Knights lost stalwart netminder Marc-Andre Fleury in a trade with Chicago, parting ways with a Vezina Trophy finalist who had helped Vegas finish fourth in total goaltending goals above replacement. But otherwise, the Golden Knights were reloading with 10 of their next 11 best players by GAR returning, and the lone exception — winger Alex Tuch — was part of a deal that landed Vegas a 25-year-old former MVP candidate in center Jack Eichel. Provided that goalie Robin Lehner (who had been splitting starts with Fleury for the past couple seasons) could keep up the team’s goaltending, Vegas easily seemed poised to challenge for a second Stanley Cup Final appearance in its short five-year tenure as an NHL team.
Little of that formula has gone according to plan.
Up until his recent injury, Lehner was merely average in net (with a 100 adjusted Goals Allowed Percentage, or GA%-), while backup Laurent Brossoit has been one of the league’s worst dozen or so regular goalies. Now Brossoit is splitting starts with rookie Logan Thompson as the team is waiting for Lehner to return and potentially improve its 25th-place ranking in goaltending GAR. But although the situation in net has played a major role in Vegas’s decline — find me a disappointing club who wasn’t undone by shaky goaltending — it is far from the team’s only letdown this year.
Injuries have ripped through the roster all season. An offense that ranked third in scoring last season is down to No. 16 this year, with 2020-21 leading scorers Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty missing a combined 75 games to date….
Read More: Will The Vegas Golden Knights Actually Miss The Playoffs?