The high court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade moves the abortion issue to the states, where legislatures and governors will determine what access, if any, women will have to abortions. In the absence of federal action, states have begun enacting laws restricting voting rights, and depending on what happens in the Supreme Court’s next term, state legislatures could be even more empowered to set rules for future elections.
Roughly half a dozen states — not surprisingly, they are the states that decided the 2020 presidential election and are likely to decide the 2024 race, as well — have competitive contests for governor. Republicans’ hopes of expanding their hold on state government will hinge on the outcomes. But the GOP’s chances will be affected by the quality of its candidates — and right now, that’s a potential problem.
Republicans control both legislative chambers in 30 states, compared with 17 for the Democrats, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Republicans have full control of state government — legislature plus the governorship — in 23 states; the Democrats 14. For Democrats, winning control of state legislatures remains a major challenge, which makes holding or flipping governorships a major priority in the ongoing battle over the direction of state policies.
The lineup in these presidential battlegrounds looks like this: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have Republican legislatures but Democratic governors. Georgia and Arizona have Republican governors and Republican legislatures, while Nevada has a Democratic governor and legislature. All are expected to see competitive gubernatorial races in November.
Republicans have nominated their strongest candidates in two of those states. In Georgia, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp cruised to a primary victory over former U.S. senator David Perdue, who had the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. Kemp will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 race, with the odds slightly in his favor. In Nevada, Republicans nominated Clark County (Las Vegas) Sheriff Joe Lombardo to challenge Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. Lombardo was the favorite of both Trump and establishment Republicans.
In the other four states, however, Republicans aren’t sure whether they have or will end up with their most credible general election candidates.
Pennsylvania’s general election is already set, pitting Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro against Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano. In Mastriano, Republican primary voters picked an election denier as their nominee, someone who has promulgated Trump’s lies about the 2020 election. In a state that remains closely divided, the question is whether a Republican with that profile can generate Trump-like turnout among the GOP base in the rural areas or turn off enough suburban and swing voters to put Shapiro in office.
Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona hold their primary elections in early August, and in each state, the competition for the Republican nomination has left open the question of whether the party will end up with its strongest candidates.
Start with Wisconsin: Democratic Gov. Tony Evers barely won in 2018, in what was a good year for the Democrats. Former lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch, who served two terms with then-Gov. Scott Walker, was seen as the likely Republican nominee and for most of 2021 and early 2022, say GOP strategists. She seemed to be doing everything right.
Then things changed. The…
Read More: Why Republicans should be nervous about their candidates for governor
