The pressure is coming from an array of parties: from lawmakers demanding the United States share more intelligence with Ukraine; to national security specialists and Ukrainian leaders calling for it to establish some form of a no-fly zone over the besieged country; to Poland trying to hand over its fighter jets to Ukrainian pilots.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin is adding a different kind of pressure. A U.S.-led no-fly zone over Ukraine? That would amount to “participation in the armed conflict,” Putin recently said. Letting Ukrainians use bases in nearby countries to stage attacks on Russia? That would mean the host countries are directly involved in the war, Russian officials have warned. The heavy economic sanctions the U.S. and its partners have imposed on Russia? Those, Putin said, are “akin to an act of war.”
President Joe Biden is sticking to his pledge not to have U.S. troops engage in direct fighting with Russia, and his team insists it weighs every decision with that promise in mind. But the various demands from Putin, Ukraine and other countries are raising questions about exactly what moves amount to being a combatant in a war under international law or — more importantly — as a matter of practical U.S. policy. It also is clear that Washington and its allies aren’t always aligned.
On Tuesday, Poland surprised the Biden administration by saying it would transfer 28 MiG-29 fighter planes to the U.S. in Germany, with the understanding that they would be then handed over to Ukrainian pilots and backfilled by U.S. F-16s.
But, in a statement that appeared to put the idea on hold, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby reflected the administration’s concern about how the Kremlin would view such transfers. For one thing, Kirby noted, “the prospect of fighter jets … departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance.”
Within minutes, that position was criticized by some U.S. lawmakers who want a more hawkish line.
For Putin, the apparent discord between Warsaw and Washington — and within Washington — is something of a gift as he tries to weaken what’s largely been a united Western front.
“The Russians are trying to create pressure and confuse the unity of the allied effort on sanctions and everything else that we’re doing that is clearly having a big effect on them,” said Bobby Chesney, a national security law specialist based at the University of Texas at Austin. “We obviously don’t want to be directly involved in the war in any combatant sense. They understand that, and they want to extend the definition of ‘combat’ as far as they can.”
How far will Biden go?
Biden’s unwillingness to send U.S. troops to fight in Ukraine is linked to his administration’s hesitation over imposing a no-fly zone on Ukraine, which, given the logistics of such an operation, would likely mean direct contact between Russian forces and those of the U.S. and its NATO partners. The White House has come under increasing pressure to impose some version of a no-fly zone, which may be why Putin issued his recent warning against it.
Many analysts agree that establishing a no-fly zone would inevitably constitute direct participation in the war. Because of NATO’s mutual defense principle, any clash between Russia and a NATO member, including the U.S., could rapidly escalate.
“What we’re trying to do is end this war in Ukraine, not start a larger one,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said recently when pressed on the topic of a no-fly zone.
Other aspects of the cooperation among the U.S., its allies and Ukraine are less clear-cut.
White House sweats over its growing entanglement in Ukraine