But this vote is just the opening salvo in battles to come. If the Supreme Court strikes down Roe, the abortion debates will change dramatically — both outside and within Congress. Activists on both sides will try to shape opinion and pressure lawmakers to do more to either codify or curtail abortion rights. Lawmakers typically respond to activists on issues of core importance to their party. However, both the Democratic and Republican congressional caucuses will divide internally, as party leaders and rank-and-file members consider which proposals to prioritize and how much political capital to dedicate to abortion fights.
How will abortion politics change for congressional Democrats?
Historically, when Democrats control Congress, they’ve tried to keep abortion off the agenda, as Kelly Rolfes-Haase and I found in research on abortion voting in Congress from 1993 to 2018. Until the end of the George W. Bush administration, a significant contingent of antiabortion Democrats joined Republicans to pass restrictions on the procedure — most notably, the 2003 Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act, which limited late-term abortions.
Even in the first years of the Obama presidency, antiabortion Democrats almost derailed the Affordable Care Act until they were assured that no federal funding would go to health insurance that covered abortions. Today, Sens. Manchin and Robert P. Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) still oppose abortion, making it hard for Democrats to expand reproductive rights in a 50-50 Senate.
The rest of the current Democratic caucus strongly supports abortion rights. Women’s rights groups are a pivotal force in the Democratic coalition and have invested heavily in electing such politicians. Outraged and energized, these groups are planning “Bans Off Our Bodies” protests across the country May 14, pressuring Democrats for results.
How will abortion politics change for congressional Republicans?
Antiabortion groups are just as central to the Republican coalition as abortion rights groups are to the Democrats. When Republicans control Congress, they vote on numerous bills to block taxpayer funding of abortion and to restrict access. Republicans hold the largest number of abortion votes when they control Congress and there’s a Democratic president. Determined to oppose a pro-choice administration, Republicans can energize their own supporters without alienating voters who oppose the restrictions, since the president will block them.
If Roe is overturned, antiabortion activists will demand more aggressive action. That may create problems if activists demand more than Republicans can deliver. For instance, in 2015, as the Republican congressional leadership negotiated with the Obama administration to pass a bill funding the government, members of the highly conservative Freedom Caucus and some others refused to vote for the compromise bill unless it defunded Planned Parenthood. (Planned Parenthood has long received Medicaid and other federal funding for non-abortion-related health care such as gynecological exams and contraception.)
Fearing that a government shutdown would be blamed on Republicans, then-Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) decided to appease detractors by resigning his speakership after negotiating a final budget deal. He further appointed a…
Read More: What will Congress do on abortion post-Roe?
