Models projections and our interpretation of them are more or less on track for Saturday’s wintry mix. A few developments:
- Model simulations suggest precipitation may break out on the early side of our timeline (see below), between roughly 6 and 9 a.m. For this reason, the National Weather Service updated the winter weather advisory to start at 7 a.m., rather than 10 a.m.
- Precipitation may start as snow, especially from the District north, with a quick coating possible before a changeover to sleet by mid-morning.
- In a positive development, around the immediate area more sleet may fall then freezing rain. As noted below, sleet provides a bit more traction than freezing rain. However, as Saturday afternoon progresses, the sleet may change to freezing rain or drizzle. Unfortunately, toward Southern Maryland and north central Virginia, under an ice storm warning, freezing rain will probably dominate.
- Just as precipitation may start early, it may wind down quickly, during the late afternoon or early evening. However, after any steady precipitation ends, patchy freezing drizzle may linger well into Saturday night or even early Sunday morning.
Please take it easy tomorrow and, if and when frozen precipitation is falling, avoid traveling if you can. We’ll begin updates early Saturday morning.
5:45 p.m. — Afternoon models keep forecast on track
Our detailed forecast and discussion provided below continues to hold for Saturday. Models continue to show a patchy mix of precipitation developing early in the morning and increasing in coverage between mid-morning and midday. A few snowflakes are not out of the question at the onset before precipitation transitions to sleet and freezing rain, especially from the District north.
For this evening and tonight, skies remain mostly cloudy. A few flurries or some spotty freezing drizzle can’t be ruled out. Odds of wintry mix rise toward sunrise. Lows are in the 20s.
Our next update will come around 10 p.m. after some new model data is in. Be sure to check back.
3:35 p.m. — Winter weather advisory issued for immediate D.C. area Saturday, ice storm warning to south
Given the threat of icing and dangerous travel Saturday and Saturday night, the National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the immediate D.C. area, including the District as well as Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince George’s counties. The advisory also includes Prince William and Fauquier counties to the south and Loudoun, southern Baltimore, Howard, Anne Arundel and Calvert counties to the north and east. In this zone, the Weather Service predicts up to a tenth or two of ice accumulation.
To the south, the situation is potentially more serious, and an ice storm warning has been issued for Stafford and Charles counties and to the south. Here, at least a quarter of an inch of ice could accumulate. “Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice,” the Weather Service writes. “Travel could be nearly impossible.”
Original article from 2 p.m.
A dash of snow fell south of the District on Thursday night and to the north on Wednesday night. Now, much of the region braces for icy precipitation that could make roads and walkways hazardous at times between Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Conditions may be most treacherous between midmorning Saturday and Saturday evening, but spotty freezing rain and/or sleet could begin as soon as early Saturday morning and linger as late as early Sunday morning.
Especially in the southern and eastern part of our region, this could be the most significant ice threat since Feb. 14, 2007, when serious icing affected Washington’s southeast suburbs.
As we’re right on the edge of this particular weather system, there is an outside chance that most of the precipitation misses the immediate area to the south and southeast. For this reason, it may not become clear if we’re looking at widespread, impactful icing in the immediate metro area until Friday evening or even early…
Read More: Washington, D.C., area faces freezing rain, sleet and slick roads Saturday