The five current and former US officials who spoke to CNN stressed that such a scenario remains hypothetical.
Administration officials agree with local election officials that the problem goes beyond inevitable security shortfalls. Current and former officials say little has been done to inform, let alone convince, American voters that Russia is trying to attack US elections again.
That’s creating a battle for public perceptions of the security of elections, which often don’t mirror the reality of how secure they are.
“If something small happens, it will feed into the mania and chaos, and all of a sudden people will think all the elections are completely insecure,” said Nicole Tisdale, who until April was the legislative affairs director at the National Security Council and previously served as the director for cybersecurity and counterintelligence with the House Homeland Security Committee.
“It’s not about fixing a small problem so that it doesn’t become a bigger problem. It’s about what happens when folks feel there’s been any leak in the boat, and folks thinking that the whole thing could sink,” Tisdale said.
An example of how officials believe the threat could play out: Russian hackers breach a local county voter registration system, making sure to get detected. They would then post information and proudly take responsibility rather than blame third-party hackers, as they did in 2016. Then, other Kremlin-backed forces would amplify the problems on Facebook and Twitter, aiming to churn up angry — and violent — reactions.
“Russia doesn’t have to do anything in advance of the election — just observe where operational challenges occur and use that issue to exploit the subsequent distrust and division,” said one US official involved in election security. “The asymmetrical advantage is astounding.”
Adrienne Ray, the elections supervisor and registrar in highly competitive Peach County, Georgia, said she feels under siege, trying to keep her systems from being at the center of a story about international espionage. In the meantime, she relies on her IT guy, while taking online classes about election security offered by the Georgia secretary of state’s office.
“I’m not a whiz at what these people could do,” Ray said. “But we try our best to be as secure as possible. … Do I know if I’m getting everything I need to know? I don’t know.”
Russian efforts capitalizing on American divisions
Earlier this month, the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis warned that Russia will “likely” look to depress voting and “probably” try to undermine the November midterms in revenge for the American-led response to the invasion of Ukraine, according to a newly declassified DHS report obtained by CNN.
“We expect Russian interference in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, as Russia views this activity as an equitable response to perceived actions by Washington and an opportunity to both undermine US global standing and influence US decision-making,” states the report, titled “Key Threats to the Homeland Through 2022.”
Russian attempts to interfere with and undermine American elections have been happening for almost a decade, but the evolution has US officials on edge. Most of the hacking that was tracked in 2016 was probing, looking for openings. Disinformation efforts were still rudimentary, elevating a few voices spouting racial divisions and disappointment in their candidates losing. But those efforts now more often use a wide array of avenues to play off divisions within the US about immigration, Covid-19 restrictions and 2020 election conspiracies. Meanwhile, intelligence officials say the disinformation methods have become broader and more…
Read More: US is worried about Russia using new efforts to exploit divisions in 2022 midterms