Here’s a counterfactual to the case that the Mar-a-Lago search caused Republicans to rally around Donald Trump.
The Washington Post has released its quarterly rankings of who the Republican presidential front runners are for 2024, and while acknowledging that Trump is indeed the leader in the polls, they conclude, for the first time, that he’s no longer the most likely nominee. Unseating him is Florida governor Ron DeSantis, which isn’t too much of a surprise. DeSantis has been eagerly courting Trump voters and is seen as the ex-president’s most likely challenger.
But what knocked Trump from the top spot? The Post concludes that his ever-amounting legal troubles and other political baggage could ultimately turn voters off, and convince them to try someone else out. And unlike his previous successful White House run in 2016, several other politicians are today promising voters many of his same policies and rhetoric.
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Here’s what we can expect today:
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Expect more legal wrangling over Lindsey Graham’s subpoena from a special grand jury in Georgia investigating election meddling by Trump officials. Over the weekend, a court temporarily stayed the summons, giving the Republican senator a reprieve from appearing before the panel.
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A federal judge has again signaled his willingness to unseal at least part of the affidavit justifying the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago, though a portion of it is likely to be redacted.
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Congress is in recess and Joe Biden is on vacation, which is why Washington is so quiet.
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Key events
Signs are mounting that Roe v. Wade’s overturning could have a transformative effect on the dynamics of the midterm elections and potentially give Democrats an advantage, Lauren Gambino reports:
For years, Democrats warned that abortion rights were under grave threat. Across the US, antiabortion activists in red states chipped away at access and pushed for conservative judges to secure their gains. Yet for many Americans, the prospect of losing the constitutional right to abortion that had existed since 1973 remained worrying but remote.
That all changed in June, when in Dobbs v Jackson, the supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, the 49-year-old ruling which had established the…
Read More: Trump’s approval rating rose following FBI investigation, polls show – live | US politics