This is the first in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. We’re starting with a pre-draft deal between the Mavericks and Rockets…
Most of the immediate reaction to the Rockets sending Christian Wood to the Mavericks in exchange for the 26th pick, Boban Marjanovic, Sterling Brown, Trey Burke and Marquese Chriss was surprise at Wood’s relatively low value, resulting a general sense that the Mavericks got a steal.
So why did the Rockets move Wood for a late first-rounder (the Rockets later flipped the pick for the 29th selection – used on TyTy Washington — and a couple of second-rounders from the Wolves) and four expiring contracts? After all, the talented big man averaged 19.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.0 block in 109 games (31.4 minutes) for Houston the past two seasons, posting a shooting line of .507/.384/.626.
The first part of the answer is easy: After finishing with the worst record in the league for the second straight season, Houston landed the third overall pick in the draft. The Rockets knew that one of Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren or Jabari Smith (whom they ultimately selected) would be available at that spot, so they needed to move Wood to clear a minutes logjam in the frontcourt for the incoming rookie and second-year big man Alperen Sengun.
Wood is too good to not play, and having him come off the bench in place of rookie and a second-year player doesn’t make sense for either side – Wood would be unhappy, and you don’t get optimal value by not showcasing a player you’re looking to deal. Wood is also on expiring contract of his own ($14.3MM), turns 27 before the season, and wasn’t in the team’s long-term plans, so all of those things hurt Houston’s negotiating leverage.
It’s also fair to question, to some extent, how much impact Wood actually had on winning in his tenure with the Rockets, considering the team finished with the worst record in the league two years in a row. Obviously, not all of that is on him, yet last season the team had a better net rating when he was off the court (-8.4) than on it (-9.6).
Rockets GM Rafael Stone is smart. All NBA front offices are led by intelligent people. The rest of the league knew that Houston needed to clear minutes in the frontcourt, and considering Wood has outperformed his three-year, $41MM deal, whichever team acquired him also knew it would have to pay him handsomely to keep him around – Wood will be eligible to sign a contract extension worth up to $77MM over four years at the end of December, as ESPN’s Bobby Marks reported at the time of the trade.
Thus, his market value turned out to be the 26th pick and four expiring contracts that range between $2.2MM and $3.5MM. The expiring deals were key for the Rockets, because they project to have a ton of cap space in 2023, and Houston is a large market that could feasibly attract free agents with its young, talented core (the fact that Texas has no state income tax also helps a selling point).
I’m skeptical that any of Marjanovic, Burke, Brown or Chriss have positive value on the trade market, and there’s a good chance most of them won’t be on Houston’s roster before the regular season begins, which is why I refer to them collectively as expiring contracts. The team currently has 18 players on standard deals and that number needs to be cut to 15 by October. If any of those players remain on the roster, it will probably be due to their off-court impact as much as what they can do on the court, because the Rockets are in the midst of a rebuild and won’t be prioritizing minutes for veterans.
Still, clearing frontcourt playing time, not having to worry about paying Wood in the future, and acquiring a young player with the potential to be under team control for up to nine years (four years of rookie scale contract plus up to…
Read More: Trade Breakdown: Christian Wood To Mavericks