There were few disasters in the just-concluded quarter, no races where highly-regarded candidates flopped. The end of Roe v. Wade, leaked in early May, helped motivate Democrats to give to statewide candidates; ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke, raised more than any candidate for governor ever had in Texas. And Donald Trump’s support helped nominate some Republicans whose fundraising was lagging, a story told most vividly by J.D. Vance in Ohio.
What else happened? Here are the highlights.
In targeted House districts, Republicans outraised Democrats. That trend has been building all cycle — donors are growing confident that their money will put the GOP back in control of the House, and the party’s online fundraising operation has made it incredibly easy to help.
The GOP’s increasing confidence about victory helped them everywhere. Both parties have preferred super PACs that can raise money with few limits. The Congressional Leadership Fund, which elects Republicans, raised $43.5 million; the House Majority PAC, which elects Democrats, raised less than half that, around $19.7 million. The HMP blundered in a safe seat last quarter, too, investing in Oregon’s 6th Congressional District on behalf of a candidate backed by a crypto billionaire’s PAC. He lost, local Democrats were furious, and Republicans kept raising money.
Race by race, nothing was that lopsided. The most vulnerable House Democrats, the ones on the DCCC’s “Frontliners” list, raised an average of $1 million, which is where incumbents want to be in a cycle where nothing else seems to go right. The next tier of Democrats, “red to blue” candidates (mostly) running to flip Republican seats, raised a bit less than $600,000, on average. (The DCCC also outraised the NRCC, though the gap closed to around $6 million this quarter.)
Republicans lagged, but they have fewer incumbents to defend and more candidates they want to put on the radar. Six Republicans were outraised by Democrats this quarter — most in districts that stayed or got more competitive in redistricting, including California’s 22nd and 41st districts, New Mexico’s 2nd district and Ohio’s 1st district. But Republicans got good news in some places where Democrats aren’t used to competing. In northwest Indiana, Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D-Ind.) was significantly outraised by GOP veteran Jennifer Ruth-Green, who instantly became the strongest Republican fundraiser ever in a working-class district drawn to elect a Democrat.
Democrat Pat Ryan also hit his mark in the year’s last competitive special election, in Upstate New York; he raised $1.1 million, while Republican Marcus Molinaro raised around $471,000. Molinaro had a head start, launching his campaign before New York’s Supreme Court threw out friendly Democratic maps, and before ex-Rep. Antonio Delgado left to become lieutenant governor, which set up the August special election — and our last test of partisan strength before the midterms.
Speaking of future elections: Donald Trump’s fundraising declined over the last six months, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) outraised him. (The Post’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Isaac Arnsdorf were first with that story.) This is cold comfort for Democrats, who are watching an ex-president pile up more money than the incumbent president, and who don’t necessarily want to run against DeSantis.
But what does it…
