It now looks like it’ll pan out quite nicely. Kemp led former senator David Perdue (R-Ga.) 60 percent to 32 percent in a recent Fox News poll, further cementing him as the odds-on favorite. His win wouldn’t necessarily affirm Pence’s political stock — Kemp was already showing double-digit leads — but it would be a nice boost for Pence and his presidential aspirations.
And it’s merely the latest example of Pence carving out some calculated distance from former president Donald Trump. And he’s navigated the potential pitfalls relatively well: Though Trump has criticized the former vice president for not helping him overturn the 2020 election, it hasn’t amounted to the kind of sustained campaign he often launches against his apostates.
What happens if a narrative takes hold after May 24 that Pence beat Trump in a proxy battle (however over-simplified)? Trump’s reaction would say plenty about his 2024 intentions and Pence’s gamble.
For these reasons, we’re at least momentarily nudging Pence up our early list of the most likely 2024 GOP presidential nominees. As usual, this list takes into account both how likely they are to run in the first place and how likely they are to win.
Also mentioned: Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem, Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.), Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.), Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.), former New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
10. Asa Hutchinson: The question has long been whether the GOP would ever nominate a Trump critic — even a gentle one — in 2024. The answer is probably still “no,” but the Arkansas governor has staked out an interesting path. He’s criticized his party for being too heavy-handed in legislating issues like transgender rights and punishing so-called “woke” corporations. And on the latter, he called out Trump’s likeliest heir apparent, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Hutchinson has also leaned into the possibility of a campaign, saying recently that it’s “on the table” when he’s out of office after 2022 — and that Trump running won’t necessarily dissuade him. (Previous ranking: N/A)
9. Chris Sununu: The New Hampshire governor is one of only a handful of big-name Republicans in the country who support abortion rights, and now has to walk a tightrope. After the news of the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion broke, he emphasized he would keep abortion “safe and legal” in New Hampshire. But last week, he also claimed to have “done more on the pro-life issue” than any other recent New Hampshire governor, because he signed a ban on abortion after 24 weeks. Navigating both his Trump criticisms and his views on abortion is asking a lot in today’s GOP. (Previous ranking: 9)
8. Glenn Youngkin: The Virginia governor has recently confronted one of his first big sources of tension with the GOP base — his cautious response to requests to crack down on protests at Supreme Court justices’ homes in his state. Virginia state law also apparently makes such protests illegal, but rather than seek state action, Youngkin ultimately joined Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in calling on the Justice Department to act instead. (Previous ranking: 8)
7. Donald Trump Jr.: In case you had any doubt about what kind of campaign Trump Jr. would run, he recently criticized Congress…
Read More: The top 10 GOP presidential candidates for 2024, ranked
