Following the 2022 midterms, there are positive narratives for Republican and Democrats alike, and, almost two years after the end of his presidency, US politics may have moved beyond peak Trump. For Peter Finn and Robert Ledger, there are interesting details related to the House of Representatives, Senate, and state level politics. Yet, the overall picture likely shows deadlock to come at the federal level, while successful state level politicians for both parties look to burnish their credentials, with some eying runs for the presidency in 2024.
- Our mini-series, ‘The 2022 midterms‘, explores aspects of the midterm elections at the presidential, Senate, House of Representative and state levels, and also reflects on what the results will mean for US politics moving forward. If you are interested in contributing, please contact Rob Ledger (ledger@em.uni-frankfurt.de) or Peter Finn (p.finn@kingston.ac.uk).
In a post prior to the 2022 midterm elections we mapped out three main federal level scenarios that could occur; the Democratic Party could hold the House of Representatives and Senate and enter the marathon race for the presidency in 2024 reinvigorated; a split Congress, with the Republicans likely to take the House and Democrats hold the Senate; and a Republican sweep of both houses of Congress. This piece built on a series of posts exploring the broader context of US elections, whether within the context of a particular cycle or set of local, state, or federal elections occurring on any particular day or election cycle, or with relation to the significant impact of history on US elections.
Now that the dust has settled, US voters have delivered the second scenario. Though Democrats are broadly seen as having outperformed expectations (or is it that Republicans underperformed?), and while obviously not as beneficial to them as holding both houses, they certainly avoided the Red Wave predictions that came to dominate coverage in the final days of the election campaign. As always, there are interesting details at the state level, with Florida and Michigan showing the need to look beyond Washington DC.
How it Played Out for The House
The House of Representatives has switched from Democratic to Republican control, with the most likely (though not guaranteed) outcome at present being California Republican Kevin McCarthy taking over the role of House Speaker from (also California) Democrat Nancy Pelosi, who, in her second stint in the role, has held the position since the Democrats took the House in 2018.
Republicans underperformed expectations, whether judged against previous midterms, their own priors, general polling averages, or media hype. Despite this, Republicans have, just about, taken control of the House of Representatives. The biggest challenge, one suspects, for McCarthy will be keeping the disparate factions of his volatile party together. A wafer-thin majority gives individual lawmakers far more clout than they would usually expect. In the past two years in the other chamber, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat, has aptly demonstrated how one politician can hold a huge sway over a party without a significant majority.
In the longer term, perhaps the most significant event following the 2022 midterms may be the decision of Pelosi, whose husband was seriously injured in an attack at their home just prior to the midterms, to step down as leader of the Democratic Caucus.
Hakeem Jeffries, who represents New York’s 8th District, will replace Pelosi. As with McCarthy, a key focus for Jeffries will be holding together a caucus split across a spectrum from centrists to progressives. Given the margins involved in the next Congressional session, one presumes the party most able to maintain discipline will make the best of the hand it has been dealt.
Senate Results
The Democrats retained control of the Senate, despite a number of close races and gloomy polls ahead of election day. By winning…
Read More: The 2022 Midterms: Trump aside, the midterms had something for everyone