Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has curtailed the reach of Russian state media in the U.S., forcing the Kremlin to use other avenues to reach Americans and other Western audiences, according to a recent Department of Homeland Security intelligence assessment obtained by Yahoo News.
The war, along with Russian media’s coverage of it, “has spurred Western governments, social media companies, and individuals to limit or disengage from Russian state media outlets, likely degrading many outlets’ ability to directly message to Western audiences through 2022,” states the April 22 DHS bulletin, produced in coordination with the Defense Intelligence Agency.
The assessment is part of the U.S. government’s tracking and analysis of Russian state-sponsored messaging efforts targeting Western audiences. But those who track Russian disinformation remain concerned about the Russian government’s capabilities when it comes to meddling in the 2022 midterm elections.
There has been a global crackdown on Russian state media since the February invasion, pushing Russia to use more circuitous channels to reach the West. But these efforts are likely to be less successful, according to the bulletin.
“We assess that Russia’s efforts to circumvent Western punitive actions, such as redirecting state media users to alternative hosting platforms, in addition to its use of covert channels, are unlikely to be as effective in reaching U.S. and European audiences as legacy RT and Sputnik infrastructure,” the April 22 bulletin states, referring to two government-sponsored Russian media outlets.
However, the bulletin notes that English-language state media in China have provided an avenue for Russian disinformation and misinformation to maintain its influence.
“Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chinese state media outlets began amplifying Russian allegations of U.S.-funded bioweapon labs in Ukraine, portrayals of NATO as the aggressor through decades of U.S.-led eastward expansion, and assertions that Western sanctions are unlikely to be effective,” the DHS assessment states.
“However,” the report adds, “Chinese-state media did not amplify some other Russian-backed narratives, such as the claim that Nazis ran Ukraine.”
One DHS source involved in tracking Russian disinformation targeting the U.S. says the decreased reach of Russian state media appears to have, at least up until now, weakened the Kremlin’s efforts to potentially influence the 2022 elections or made such efforts more difficult.
“Russia is just going to have to get more creative. They’re going to have to rely in some respects on countries like China to do their bidding,” the official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal agency assessments, said. DHS declined Yahoo News’ request for comment.
Russian disinformation experts told Yahoo News the assessment tracks with what they’ve seen in recent months but strongly cautioned against downplaying or underestimating Russia’s capabilities.
The diminished reach of its state media will force Russia to use more covert channels like proxies to try to influence the upcoming elections, said Bret Schafer, senior fellow and head of the information manipulation team at the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a nonpartisan group that aims to counter Russian disinformation campaigns.
“Those proxies don’t have the same audience,” he said.
But Russia’s messaging challenge isn’t new, Schafer said. He pointed to the Russian propaganda outlets News Front and South Front, for example, which were removed from Facebook in 2020 after they were discovered to be linked to Russian intelligence…
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