If you’re looking for former Cy Young Award winners and future Hall of Famers, this is a fantastic, all-time crop of free-agent starting pitchers.
If you’re looking for in-their-prime starting pitchers without any major injury risk attached on a long-term contract, this offseason class is a bit lacking.
It’s a fascinating mix of past greatness and future question marks, meaning front offices in search of impact arms will have to take some big gambles, while teams needing mid-rotation help can choose from a deep group of appealing options.
Below is The Athletic’s guide to the biggest names, the best and worst bets, and the potential diamonds in the rough among free-agent starting pitchers.
(Note: All listed ages are as of June 30, 2023.)
1. Jacob deGrom, RHP
Age in 2023: 35
Last team: Mets
Jacob deGrom’s free-agent market is capped only by aging and injuries, because when healthy enough to take the mound he’s been the best pitcher in the world for five years and one of Major League Baseball’s top half-dozen pitchers for nearly a decade. He won back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019, and placed third in the abbreviated 2020 season, but was limited to 26 starts the past two seasons.
Elbow and shoulder injuries sidelined deGrom from July 2021 to August 2022, but he returned with his high-90s fastball and power slider intact, striking out 102 in 62 innings. Among all starters in MLB history with at least 60 innings, his 2022 strikeout rate of 14.3 per nine innings is tied for first … with himself from 2021. His career ERA is 2.52, including 2.05 since 2018.
DeGrom was a late bloomer, making his MLB debut at 26, and he’s somehow gotten better with age while maintaining his otherworldly raw stuff despite the injuries. His average fastball velocity led all starters in 2022 (98.9 mph), 2021 (99.2) and 2020 (98.6), and it’s not even deGrom’s best pitch. That honor goes to his low-90s slider, which is one of the great breaking balls of all time.
Opponents have hit .170 versus deGrom’s slider in the past five years, including .139 with a 54 percent swing-and-miss rate in 2022 and .096 with a 58 percent whiff rate in 2021. Oh, and he also occasionally uses a low-90s changeup that’s as good as many All-Stars’ best pitch. He’s like a video game’s create-a-pitcher with all of the ratings maxed out. Except for health. Had to skimp somewhere.
DeGrom seems certain to join Max Scherzer ($43 million) and Gerrit Cole ($36 million) as the only pitchers making more than $35 million per season, but how many years will even the biggest-payroll teams be willing to hand a soon-to-be 35-year-old with 156 innings the past two seasons? No one compares on a per-start basis, so we’re about to find out how front offices weigh risk versus reward.
Jacob deGrom’s first 10 pitches were ALL 100+ MPH, then he dropped a nasty slider to end the inning. pic.twitter.com/O8iSxpIvxQ
— MLB (@MLB) June 1, 2021
2. Carlos Rodón, LHP
Age in 2023: 30
Last team: Giants
Shedding an “injury-prone” label takes time and it never fully goes away. Carlos Rodón was the No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft and reached the majors 10 months later, but shoulder problems kept him from being the front-line starter everyone expected. Then elbow surgery knocked him out for most of 2019 and 2020, and the White Sox cut him. Two months later, he re-signed for just $3 million.
Rodón’s long-awaited breakout came in 2021. He threw an April no-hitter, and had a 2.38 ERA with 160 strikeouts in 110 innings through early August. Then more shoulder issues limited him to just 23 innings in Chicago’s final 50 games. He was a free agent again last offseason, but teams weren’t willing to make him a big long-term offer, so Rodón settled for a short-term deal with the Giants.
This time Rodón was dominant and healthy all season, posting a 2.88 ERA in a career-high 31 starts and striking out 237 in a career-high 178 innings. Among pitchers with at least 50 starts…
Read More: Ranking the top 20 free-agent starting pitchers in a deep, question-filled class