NREL study identifies opportunities and challenges of achieving 100% clean electricity by 2035
The national lab found multiple technical pathways to a zero-emissions power grid, but warned costs climb steeply in the final stretch toward full decarbonization.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory published its 100% Clean Electricity by 2035 Study on September 3, 2022, in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, according to CleanTechnica's coverage of the report. The study modeled multiple scenarios for reaching a zero-net-greenhouse-gas power grid by 2035 — a step researchers linked to putting the country on a path toward economywide net-zero emissions by 2050.
Using NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System capacity expansion model, researchers found that wind and solar could supply 60% to 80% of generation under optimal scenarios, with overall clean generation capacity roughly tripling from 2020 levels by 2035, per CleanTechnica. NREL researcher Brian Sergi was quoted saying, "The U.S. can get to 80%–90% clean electricity with technologies available today."
The study also put a dollar figure on the benefits: up to 130,000 premature deaths avoided and $390 billion to $400 billion in associated health savings, plus an additional $1.2 trillion in avoided climate damage costs, for a net societal benefit estimated between $920 billion and $1.2 trillion, according to CleanTechnica's summary of the findings.
The "last 10%" problem
Researchers identified what CleanTechnica's coverage called the "last 10% challenge," driven largely by seasonal mismatches between variable renewable generation and consumption. The cost of pushing the grid the rest of the way to 100% carbon-free electricity rises steeply as that mark is approached, the study found, meaning the easier gains come first and the hardest, most expensive gains come last. NREL researcher Paul Denholm was quoted making the point that there is no single technology solution to the transition, underscoring why the study modeled a range of pathways rather than one fixed plan.
What it would take
The study estimated $330 billion to $740 billion in additional power system costs between 2023 and 2035, requiring solar deployment of 40 to 90 gigawatts annually and wind deployment of 70 to 150 gigawatts annually by 2030 — roughly four times current installation rates — along with 1,400 to 10,100 miles of new high-capacity transmission lines built each year, according to CleanTechnica's reporting on the study's figures.
What the study didn't settle
NREL's own framing, as relayed by CleanTechnica, stressed that the exact technology mix and final costs depend on future research and development, manufacturing investment, and infrastructure decisions — meaning the study maps a range of possible pathways rather than a single prescribed plan for reaching the 2035 goal.
US In News compiled this archived account from contemporaneous coverage by CleanTechnica of the NREL study. It restores a story originally published on this site in September 2022; figures are as reported at the time.