The calendar has flipped to December, Thanksgiving is in the rearview mirror and nearly every NHL team has passed the quarter mark of their season. Lots of hockey is left to be played, but the “it’s early, don’t worry” plea is becoming less and less of a valid reassurance for underperforming clubs.
Many teams are in that situation, falling short of expectations. Forget just playoff contenders, there are organizations with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations who are on the outside looking in right now. Coaches are on the hot seat, fan bases are panicking and in some cases, there might be a drastic change in direction if the train doesn’t get back on track.
No playoff contender has dug itself an insurmountable hole — the margin between being in or out is razor thin right now — but the temperature is inching higher. Let’s analyze playoff contenders outside the bar to see what’s gone wrong and rate them from one to five for how worried they should be (1 meaning not worried, 5 meaning full panic mode).
Since teams have played an uneven number of games, we’re going to sort by points percentage instead of raw points (that means Minnesota will draw into a playoff spot and Calgary will be out in the Western Conference wild card).
Record: 11-9-4
What’s gone wrong: The Rangers were tied with the second-best betting odds of winning the Metropolitan Division on the heels of a trip to the Eastern Conference final. Instead, they find themselves fifth in the Metro, behind the rival Devils and Islanders.
Igor Shesterkin was superhuman in 2021-22, putting together one of the best goaltending campaigns in NHL history, but he’s come back down to Earth. He hasn’t been bad, but the .913 save percentage he’s managed ranks 24th among goalies with at least seven games played this season. Jaroslav Halak was mightily struggling as the backup with an .881 save percentage and 0-5-1 record before authoring a brilliant performance on Wednesday against the Senators to pick up his first win.
New York’s power play looked unstoppable last year but it’s ranked 19th in the league this season.
The Rangers have also built a nasty habit of blowing leads. They coughed up a 3-0 advantage in the third period for a regulation loss against the Oilers last Saturday and followed that up the next game by blowing an early 2-0 lead against the Devils. New York lost two other games earlier in the month where they blew multi-goal third-period leads.
New York’s bottom two pairs have underperformed. Jacob Trouba’s looked off and the No. 6 spot on the left side has been in a state of flux.
Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider are the club’s only high-end wingers in part because Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafrenière still haven’t broken out.
Outlook: Teams that rely on an elite power play and out-of-this-world goaltending instead of a stable foundation built on controlling five-on-five play are usually at a higher risk of taking a step back.
Elite talents like Connor Hellebuyck (.910 save percentage last season) and Carey Price (.900 in 2017-18) have played average or only decent for an entire season before so it’s not a given that Shesterkin will immediately return to elite form even if he has the talent to do exactly that. New York’s in big trouble if Shesterkin’s average form persists.
The power play, on the other hand, should theoretically resurge at some point. It’s become a little too predictable but there’s too much elite talent on the first unit for it to not adapt.
I wouldn’t be panicking yet, but there are plenty of reasons to be concerned and feel unsure.
Panic meter: 3/5
Record: 10-9-4
What’s gone wrong: Florida’s in the middle of a spiral, having dropped six of its last seven games.
The Panthers haven’t fully gelled under Paul Maurice, can’t win the extra point when games go past 60 minutes (1-4 record in overtime/shootouts) and have really missed Alex…
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