The scene has recurred this season: A prime-time NFL matchup looms, perhaps one that was circled months ago as a premier face-off of high-octane offenses.
Then 2022 NFL reality hits, lonely end zones and rigid scoreboards materializing.
And alas, viewers are “treated” to the Indianapolis Colts’ 12-9 overtime win over the Denver Broncos, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 19-3 Sunday Night Football takedown of the Dallas Cowboys, the San Francisco 49ers’ 24-9 dismantling of the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, and the Washington Commanders’ 12-7 escape from the Chicago Bears.
“I think there’s a lot of bad football from what I watch,” Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady said bluntly Oct. 6. “I watch a lot of bad football. Poor quality of football. That’s what I see.”
Scoring across the 2022 season is down. And through seven weeks of play, the 43.4 average total points per game marks the lowest output the NFL has seen since 2010. But why?
“We’ve looked at it in a lot of different ways,” NFL Competition Committee Chairman Rich McKay, also the Atlanta Falcons president/CEO, said at the league’s fall meeting this month. “Every statistical look that we’ve made, I’m not sure that we’ve found a good answer.”
Yahoo Sports has sought to identify the myriad contributing factors. Speaking with NFL head coaches, players and team decision-making staff members, a series of theories emerged. Further data from the league’s analytics department helped sort through questions. We asked: Are 2022 NFL offenses worse? Are this year’s defenses better? And how much of that stems from player skills, coaching influence and/or expected league trends?
Here’s what we found.
Teams are in ‘discovery phase’
To start, let’s contextualize those 43.4 average points scored across 108 NFL games in 2022. That figure represents the combined score between two opponents in a contest, and it’s down 3.8 points from last year’s 47.2 mark through seven weeks of play, according to research compiled for Yahoo Sports by NFL Senior Director of Football and Analytics Mike Lopez. No time since the league’s 2011 lockout has scoring dipped lower. Only once since 2011 have games featured fewer average touchdowns than this year’s 4.79 through seven weeks, Lopez found.
Initially, multiple coaches, players and team research staff members attributed the deficit to roster growing pains. Decreased preseason participation was influencing offensive rhythm. Offensive linemen, in particular, needed more time to settle. Add in a series of high-profile personnel moves in the offseason — the Seattle Seahawks traded quarterback Russell Wilson to the Broncos, the Green Bay Packers dealt receiver Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens sent receiver Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown to the Arizona Cardinals, to name a few — and some teams simply needed to get on the same page, as the sentiment went. Injuries only exacerbated upheaval.
“It just seems like there are a lot of people in transition with their team,” Los Angeles Chargers coach Brandon Staley said. “That’s why I talk about the ‘discovery’ phase. I don’t use that as a coaching phrase to make it feel better, I think it’s descriptive of what’s actually happening.
“Once these groups join up and they get their quote unquote ‘identity,’ then you’ll see it.”
But scoring isn’t just down relative to the last decade’s season-long totals. 2022 has established a new floor compared to seven-week stretches since 2010, which suggests something more at play than just early growing pains.”. Defensive trends, to passing attacks’ dismay, appear to be factoring in.
Good luck passing as defenses drop deeper
While rushing attacks have largely chugged on, passing efficiency has plunged. Lopez broke down net points by added play type, discovering that…
Read More: NFL scoring is down in 2022. What are the causes?