NFL free agency is coming, and all 32 teams’ rosters will look a bit different in a couple of weeks. Positional needs will shift, and each franchise’s approach to Round 1 of the 2021 NFL draft will become clearer.
But for now, teams are starting to get a good idea of which draft prospects might fit into their plans and what they might do when they are on the clock in just under two months’ time. It’s a very different pre-draft process than we are used to seeing, but the prospect group is packed with talent. That, of course, begins with a generational quarterback talent atop the class.
So what will happen on April 29? Here are my current predictions for how the first round of the 2021 NFL draft will play out, beginning with the Jaguars’ franchise-altering addition at No. 1. Just as I did in my last mock, I project two trades that could mix up the top 10. And for all 32 selections, I invited our NFL Nation reporters to offer their analysis on how each player can fit into the roster for 2021 and beyond. For more, check out our Mock Draft 3.0 SportsCenter Special, airing on Friday night at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN2). OK, let’s get into the picks.
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Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
I might start beginning my mock drafts with the second pick, because Lawrence heading down to Jacksonville to become new coach Urban Meyer’s franchise QB is about as close to a lock as you can have in early March. The Jaguars’ quarterback room has ranked among the league’s worst in Total QBR over the past three seasons, finishing no higher than 26th over that time. But Lawrence has elite traits in just about every area of his game.
Michael DiRocco on his fit with the Jaguars: Lawrence would start out of the gate even if the Jaguars do sign Alex Smith, which seems to be the trendy rumor considering his time with Meyer at Utah. Play the kid and start the rebuild.
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
The logic here stands from my last mock draft: I expect Wilson to be the No. 2 overall pick, whether or not it is the Jets making it. Projecting this pick isn’t necessarily suggesting they should or will move on from Sam Darnold, but if they do, Wilson is the obvious next move. If they don’t, watch for a QB-needy team to trade up to take him here. Wilson is creative and can extend plays, he can hit the deep ball and his toughness in the pocket stands out.
Rich Cimini on his fit with the Jets: If it is the Jets taking Wilson, that would mean the end for Darnold, who would be traded — and perhaps before the Jets are even on the clock. I think New York would look to acquire a “bridge” quarterback to ease the transition for Wilson, but it also needs to find some playmakers to put around him.
Trade: Carolina jumps the QB line
All of a sudden, we are all about the mock draft trades. But to be fair, this class is nearly impossible to predict without some movement. I’m sticking with this Miami-Carolina swap again, which gives the Panthers a chance to land a difference-making QB. The Dolphins originally acquired this pick in a 2019 deal with Houston, and it’s the gift that keeps on giving: The Dolphins would likely haul in a big package that could include the No. 8 pick, Carolina’s second-rounder (No. 39) and a future 2022 first-rounder.
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
Carolina is closer to competing than its 5-11 record suggested, and a real game-breaker under center would go a long way toward getting the Panthers there. Teddy Bridgewater was more of a game manager last season, especially down the stretch, throwing only four more touchdowns than interceptions. Fields can make off-schedule throws or tuck it and run, but he has shown poise when he hangs in the pocket too. Accuracy pops on his deep balls.
David Newton on his fit with the Panthers: Even if Bridgewater isn’t traded and remains on the roster, Carolina likely would throw Fields into the starting lineup and grow with him as it did with Cam Newton in 2011. You trade up like this only if…
Read More: NFL mock draft 2021 – Todd McShay’s predictions for all 32 first-round picks