The NBA playoffs are here with four first-round games taking place on Saturday and Sunday.
In the East, all eyes will be on the Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets series as Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving look to upset the No. 2 seed Celtics, who are without injured center Robert Williams III, in what should be a competitive series.
Out West, injuries could dictate the teams that advance. Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic will miss Saturday’s Game 1 against the Utah Jazz because of a strained left calf, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Tim MacMahon. And Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is listed as probable for Game 1 against the Denver Nuggets after missing the last 12 games of the regular season with a left foot injury.
Which returning player could have the biggest impact? Which higher seed can least afford to lose Game 1 this weekend? Our NBA experts break down the top first-round storylines.
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1. Which first-round series stands to be the most competitive?
Kevin Pelton: Boston and Brooklyn. As I laid out in my series preview, the Nets have been much better than their overall record with Kevin Durant healthy and Kyrie Irving available alongside him, while the Celtics aren’t the same juggernaut without injured center Robert Williams III. As a result, these teams look surprisingly even for the No. 2 and No. 7 seeds.
Tim Bontemps: Many will probably say Nets-Celtics, given the star power involved, but I’m going to go with another Eastern Conference series: Philadelphia-Toronto. The 76ers have the best player in the series by a significant amount in Joel Embiid. But Toronto should have a coaching advantage, Philadelphia won’t have Matisse Thybulle for all three games in Toronto, and the Raptors have the perfect assortment of long, athletic players to both take advantage of Philadelphia’s lack of athleticism and make James Harden‘s life extremely difficult. Embiid should be enough to power Philadelphia through and win this series. But this should be a very difficult test — one that easily could go seven games — and could send Philly home far earlier than it expects.
Kevin Arnovitz: Dallas-Utah. Both 4-5 matchups have strong seven-game potential, but the Mavericks and Jazz should be really competitive. It’s been a while since Utah played a sustained stretch of dominant basketball, but the Jazz are still the league’s top-ranked offense. Meanwhile, Dallas has been one of the best stories of 2022. When healthy, Luka is Luka. Spencer Dinwiddie has added some juice the team desperately needed from the perimeter, and the defense — traditionally a weakness — has been strong all season. Both of the teams have been disappointments in recent postseasons … and one will be so again when this series is over.
Ramona Shelburne: Even without Luka Doncic missing Game 1, I thought the Mavericks-Jazz series was going to be a tight one. I know a lot of people are down on the Jazz because of their past playoff failures, but I’ve always felt like they have the ability to put it together one of these years if they hit a few breaks.
Jamal Collier: Boston-Brooklyn. I don’t think a team with Durant and Irving is going to go out quietly. This feels like a seven-game series with a chance for several games to come down to the wire, and those are two dangerous players to try to outdo in clutch performances. Ultimately, it’s hard for me to see the Nets playing or defending at a high enough level for four out of seven games to pull this series off, but it’s going to be fun to watch.
2. Which injured player’s return could have the biggest impact on the first round?
Pelton: Doncic coming back from a calf strain. Although Stephen Curry is at least as valuable to his team, Curry’s timetable is clearer. We have no idea right now whether Doncic can get back on the court for Game…
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