By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Despite what you think about the Houston Astros, it’s impossible to ignore the success they’ve experienced over the last five seasons.
Houston has reached the American League Championship Series every year since winning the World Series in 2017. The Astros are still churning butter and racking up wins even after losing George Springer and Carlos Correa in back-to-back offseasons.
They’re currently leading the AL West with a 29-16 record thanks to a potent offense and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. And while it’s clear the Astros have very good players, the organization certainly deserves some credit for keeping the ship afloat.
“It’s definitely a combination of the two,” Westgate SuperBook senior baseball trader Randy Blum told FOX Sports. “The organization didn’t overreach for Correa because they had this kid Jeremy Peña ready to take over at shortstop. Decisions like that aren’t easy, and that’s a credit to scouting and development.
“Houston has quality players all over the roster, too. And getting [Justin] Verlander back and having him do what he’s doing is incredible. Some of the other starting pitchers are still on the come up, but Verlander’s veteran presence in the rotation is a huge deal.”
Verlander is the odds-on favorite to win the AL Cy Young [+450 at FOX Bet], and he’s pacing a staff posting a collective 2.80 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have better numbers in both categories.
We could very well be destined for a 2019 ALCS rematch between the Astros and New York Yankees for a chance to play in this year’s Fall Classic. The Bronx Bombers have already pounded 63 homers in 44 games, and ace Gerrit Cole has the highest ERA [3.31] in a surprisingly dominant rotation.
I wonder what that seven-game series price would be on a neutral field.
“The Yankees are a slight favorite, but it’s a long season,” Blum said. “Just knowing how the public would bet it helps you make that assessment. A lot would depend on who is healthy in October, but if you had me make a number on it right now, the Yankees are a slight favorite.”
With Blum born and raised a Yankee fan in New York, I always wonder how guys like him balance fandom with reality. Do things like a white-hot start this season or 13 years without a World Series title affect his numbers?
“I can’t let that happen,” Blum said after a laugh. “Sometimes I’ll put on my brave face when we’re talking ball in the office, but then I have to make the real numbers. [SuperBook vice president of risk management Ed Salmons] keeps me in check, too. You can’t let that stuff affect your numbers.
“You force yourself to put emotion to the side when you’re putting numbers up for betting purposes. Say you make a bet on your White Sox and lose your personal bet; you move on. If I did the same thing on our side and we take a hundred bets on other teams and lose money, that’s not good.”
Speaking of my Chicago White Sox, what the hell is going on?
Chicago is treading water at 22-21 after 43 games, and the South Siders are bottom-five in baseball in runs scored, walks, RBIs and on-base percentage. They’re currently 4.5 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central.
“Big picture, they’ll be fine,” Blum opined. “They still have enough offense and the pitching has been great. Eloy [Jimenez] seems to get hurt every year, so he’ll be out for a while. Other guys have been injured like [Yoan] Moncada and [Luis] Robert. Lance Lynn hasn’t even thrown a pitch yet.
“The surprise in the division through seven weeks has been the Minnesota Twins. I didn’t expect them to be playing as well as they have. Can they keep it up for the rest of the season? I would lean towards the ‘No’ on that.
“I still think the White Sox are the clear favorite to win the AL Central, just not as heavy a favorite as they were before the season.”
The reigning champion Atlanta Braves are another team that hasn’t met…
Read More: MLB odds: Bookmaker’s take on the Astros, Yankees, Braves, Dodgers, more