Some hitters rake from pretty much their first day in the big leagues. In recent seasons, precocious talents such as Ronald Acuña Jr., Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger and Juan Soto have immediately announced themselves as stars.
But more often, finding your footing against Major League pitching takes time. It requires players to adjust, and teams and fans to exercise patience. The rewards can be sweet, though.
So who might make that jump in 2021? MLB.com convened five reporters to draft 10 candidates — five from the American League and five from the National League. While “breakout hitter” could have a number of definitions, we stuck to the following criteria:
• Entering age-27 season or younger
• At least 100 career MLB plate appearances (so no top prospects, such as Wander Franco or Jarred Kelenic)
• No previous All-Star selections or seasons with at least a 120 OPS+ (min. 100 PA)
Luis Robert — OF, White Sox
Key number: 9 batted balls with 110+ mph exit velocity
Yes, I’m fully aware that Robert struck out in roughly one-third of his plate appearances last September, nosediving his early bid for the AL MVP. Chases and whiffs aren’t going to suddenly disappear from Robert’s game, but I’m choosing to view those struggles in a shortened season as a plus for ‘21. He packed all the ups and downs into 60 games, preparing him for the rhythms of a 162-game grind. And, to put it simply, Robert is simply too talented to stay down for long.
Robert is capable of tape-measure blasts (see: that 487-foot moonshot in the AL Wild Card Series), but, more importantly, he consistently scalds the ball. His nine batted balls with a 110-plus mph exit velocity put him in company with superstars like Marcell Ozuna, Corey Seager, Giancarlo Stanton and Ronald Acuña Jr. last year. That’s the kind of power La Pantera can tap into, and it’s why I think he could rack up 25-30 homers as a force for those dynamic White Sox.
— Matt Kelly
Even though we’ve already seen two seasons of Vlad Jr., it’s easy to forget that he’s still very young — he’ll be 22 by Opening Day, with plenty of career ahead of him. We’ve seen the impressive power, and there’s a lot of evidence that there’s even more waiting to be unlocked. His 12 batted balls with at least a 115 mph exit velocity since he debuted are five more than any other player has since the start of 2019.
In 2020, Guerrero had a 50.8% hard-hit rate, which ranked 12th among players with at least 100 batted balls and was up about 12 percentage points from ’19. As with all ‘20 stats, the real number for him over a full season likely lies somewhere in the middle, but this shows that there’s plenty of power for the young slugger still to unleash. The key will be lifting all that hard contact in the air on a more regular basis. The Blue Jays added veteran George Springer in the offseason, and with a lot of other talented teammates including Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and others, Guerrero Jr. should be ripe to break out in 2021.
— Sarah Langs
Cordero has amassed just 315 plate appearances in four big league seasons, missing significant time with a right forearm strain, a right elbow sprain and a fractured right hamate bone. But in that small sample size, the 6-foot-3, 226-pound slugger has shown some impressive raw power. Nine of Cordero’s 12 career homers have traveled 420 feet or more, including a 489-foot blast in 2018 that is tied for the 12th-longest homer in Statcast history (since 2015).
The 26-year-old has recorded 22 barrels (batted balls with the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle) as a big leaguer, with a 12.4% barrel rate. To put that in perspective, only 30 qualified hitters had a barrel rate of 12.4% or better in 2020. Cordero has shown a tendency to swing and miss, but after recording a 38.4% whiff rate and a 38.8% strikeout rate in his first three seasons, he lowered those marks to 20.2% and 9.5%, respectively, in 2020. It’s unclear…