- Democrats are in a crucial fight to maintain control of Congress.
- A Warnock reelection would significantly help Democrats brush back a Republican takeover.
- Warnock must overcome Biden’s low approval ratings, stubborn inflation and fears of a looming recession to replicate support in Atlanta’s suburbs.
JONESBORO, Ga. – Carl Cox Jr., a 31-year-old software developer from Dallas, Georgia, northwest of Atlanta, voted for Democrat Raphael Warnock in the 2020 special election to fill the remaining two years of a U.S. Senate seat. But this year, he’s having trouble getting excited about Georgia’s U.S. Senate race, in which Warnock is running for reelection for a full six-year term.
Cox pointed to the souring economy and his own “fatigue” with politics.
He called Warnock, a second-year senator, a “lesser of two evils” in his reelection campaign against Republican Herschel Walker. And he cited the senator’s support for abortion rights, not legislative accomplishments, as the main reason he reluctantly backs Warnock.
“It’s just more of, do I want to drag myself out of bed and do it at that moment?” Cox said of voting in the pivotal Georgia election that could decide control of the Senate. “I just haven’t seen outcomes from Warnock as much as I would have liked to.”
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Democrats can’t afford voters like Cox sitting on the sidelines as Warnock looks to re-create the coalition that helped flip the Peach State blue two years ago and hand Democrats control of the Senate. President Joe Biden, Warnock and fellow Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff assembled a coalition of minority, young and first-time voters, with an emerging Democratic stronghold – suburban voters like Cox – to win their elections and flip a once reliably red state.
To pull off the seismic shift, Democrats expanded their coalition to the suburbs around Atlanta, increasing support among college-educated white voters who historically voted Republican but rejected former President Donald Trump.
To do so this time, Warnock must overcome Biden’s low approval ratings, stubborn inflation and a looming recession.
Still, Democrats have two factors working to their advantage: the emergence of abortion as a potential issue to energize voters, particularly women, and Walker himself.
Debate recap:Abortion, inflation dominate in Georgia debate with Herschel Walker, Raphael Warnock
Walker, a Trump-backed former University of Georgia football star, has been hampered by a string of controversies, including allegations that he paid for his ex-girlfriend to have an abortion despite his anti-abortion position as a candidate.
“Where this could easily be decided is: What do white, college-educated voters do?” said Charles Bullock III, a political science professor at the University of Georgia. “And what we saw in 2020 and in the 2021 runoffs is that Democrats don’t have to get most of the group’s vote, but they probably need about 40% of that group.”
Can abortion energize Democrats amid struggling economy?
Democrats are in a crucial fight to maintain control of Congress. They hold slim majorities in the House, with only an eight-seat advantage, and even slimmer control in the 50-50 Senate.
A Warnock reelection would help Democrats brush back a Republican takeover. The race is widely considered a toss-up. A poll last week from Quinnipiac University found Warnock ahead of Walker 52%-45%, but most polling has shown a tighter race. A polling average by analysis site FiveThirtyEight has Warnock ahead by 3.7 percentage points.
Suburban voters are just one piece of a winning formula for Democrats. They also need Black and young voters to match or come close to turnout of 2020 and 2021. Although stakes are high, even Warnock’s supporters are worried voters might not show up.
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“We got to get these young folks…
Read More: In Georgia Senate race, Warnock needs 2020 coalition against Walker