Whatever the final numbers show, 2022 will be remembered as an election that produced an incremental earthquake, an election of small shifts that added up to big surprises, an election in which the party that hopes to recapture the House emerges disappointed and more divided. Election 2022 was a dual referendum: on President Biden and the Democrats but also on former president Donald Trump and the Republicans.
Trump has changed politics in many ways, and Republicans paid a price for it Tuesday. His presence has created an energized electorate. Since he was elected, huge voter turnouts have become the norm: a midterm record in 2018, a presidential-year record in 2020 and a near record again this year. Midterm elections usually mean complacency among voters whose party just won the White House. In the age of Trump, every election is consequential, and both sides come highly motivated.
For all the shouting and anger that has marked politics in recent years, voters were not in a “throw the bums out” mood. So far, only a handful of House members have lost their elections. The shifts have come more in open seats than in incumbent-held seats. No sitting senators have yet to be defeated — but the race in Nevada has not been called and Georgia is headed for a runoff. Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), who conceded to Republican Joe Lombardo on Friday, is an exception to this pattern.
Republicans campaigned against what they described as a radical left-wing agenda by Biden and congressional Democrats. They counted on high inflation, concerns about disorder and Biden’s weak approval ratings to give them a sweeping victory and the chance to dramatically change the course of policy. The message from voters was hardly a mandate for a major course change. Fears of a Trumpian party in charge in Washington caused many voters to stand in the way and say go slow.
For years, Republicans stressed the importance of the Supreme Court as a way to mobilize their base. On Tuesday, the Supreme Court became a liability for Republican candidates, an institution seen by many Democratic voters as able to take away rights for women and a symbol of Republican-controlled government. Abortion rights supporters — women and young voters in particular — turned out in droves.
In August, red-state Kansas delivered the first warning to Republicans of the backlash against the Dobbs decision, with voters by overwhelming numbers saying they wanted to protect abortion rights in the state constitution. This month, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, seen as the party’s most vulnerable governor, won reelection by about 17,000 votes.
Republicans failed to make significant gains in part because they failed to attract the voters who often make the biggest difference in midterm elections. Every time there has been a party shift in the House in recent midterm elections, independent voters played a decisive role in helping the winning side. This year independent voters split their voters almost evenly, 49 percent for Democratic House candidates and 47 percent for Republicans, according to exit polls from Edison Research.
The Republicans’ failure to convert more of those independent voters to their side is a flashing yellow light that the voters who can make the difference between winning and losing aren’t calling for major change. Perhaps they worried about choosing a party in which a majority say they do not think Biden was legitimately elected.
Trump saddled the party with weak candidates. With better candidates in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, Republicans might already have won control of the Senate. Instead, Democrats…
Read More: In election 2022, the GOP pays for being the party of Trump
