With one week to go before midterm elections, U.S. voters are evenly split in their support between Democratic and Republican candidates, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. The latest numbers show a significant shift since June, when Democrats enjoyed a 7-percentage point lead over Republicans, shortly after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Among independent voters, Republicans hold a 15 percentage point advantage over Democrats with 45 percent backing the GOP and 30 percent supporting the party currently in power.
President Joe Biden’s name isn’t on the ticket this election cycle, but midterms often are considered referendum votes on the party in power. With days to go, 42 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s leadership in office while 50 percent disapprove. Enthusiasm is running against Biden with twice as many people saying they strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance as those saying they strongly approve of what he’s doing. Americans perceive Biden about as favorably as they do former President Donald Trump, who has frequently made appearances to campaign for GOP candidates this cycle.
Given these latest flagging numbers, history doesn’t bode well for the Democrats’ chances in the polls. Low presidential approval ratings coupled with a large number of vulnerable seats tend to spell significant losses for the party in power, historical data show. The Democrats held only a six point advantage when they won control of Congress in 2018, and with the race now neck and neck, that control is at significant risk, analysts say.
For much of this year, Democrats managed to hang onto their small lead over Republicans, said Amy Walter, publisher and editor of the Cook Political Report. But now, she said it seems “as if the momentum is coalescing around the out-party here in the final days of the election.”
In Congress, all 435 House seats are up for grabs (although most seats aren’t considered competitive elections), along with 35 Senate seats. Republicans are only one seat away from winning control of the Senate, and polls show they have a chance in at least four races: Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
About six out of 10 U.S. adults — 59 percent — think it is better for the country if the same party controls Congress and the presidency. While 38 percent think the country benefits from political power being split between two parties (and the implicit checks and balances that tension brings to elected leaders and institutions). That’s a reversal from December 2016, when 29 percent preferred the same political party running the country while 63 percent wanted different parties to run the executive and legislative branches.
This support for one-party rule is “unique in recent American history,” said Allan Lichtman, a political scientist and professor at American University. A decade of worsening political gridlock at different levels of government – like multiple showdowns that have edged the nation toward a default on its debt – may have helped shape that public opinion.
Who’s fired up to vote?
Eight out of 10 voters — both Democrats and Republicans — say they are “definitely voting” in the midterms this year. Independents’ enthusiasm overall was a bit cooler, but roughly three-quarters of them say they plan to vote in the days ahead.
If there ends up being a large turnout in the youth vote, “it’s going to help the Democrats,” said Alexander Keyssar, a professor of history and social policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. But so far, a surge of youth voters at the polls doesn’t appear likely. Nearly all baby boomers – 94 percent – say they plan to cast a ballot, voicing far more enthusiasm for the upcoming election than Gen Z-millennial voters who only clock in at 65 percent. Analyzing responses…
Read More: Here’s what voters said in our last poll before Election Day