It’s not even June, yet the Mariners have already sent three of their top prospects back to Triple-A Tacoma — outfielder Jarred Kelenic, catcher Cal Raleigh and pitcher Matt Brash.
That’s not entirely accurate: Raleigh’s stay in Tacoma was short, as he earned a ticket back to the big leagues earlier this month, but only after catcher Tom Murphy landed on the injured list.
All three players, under the age of 25, seemingly have seen their development stunted, halted, whatever you want to call it, after they not only landed spots on the team’s Opening Day roster but were expected to be key contributors to a team that entered the season with postseason aspirations.
So what happened? As it turns out, this isn’t just a Mariners question, but one that many other big-league teams are facing as their prospects and young service-time players have failed to live up to their billing, at least early on.
There’s a belief in baseball circles that we’re seeing the effects of the lost season of minor-league baseball in 2020, when the pandemic wiped out the entire season, robbing many of these players of critical development time.
“I am convinced that’s what we’re watching,” Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told The Athletic recently. “You are seeing guys that, through no fault of their own, missed out on 500, 600 plate appearances and maybe more, and their development was accelerated.
“You’re constantly trying to create challenges and force players through some level of adversity before they have to face it in the big leagues. Facing adversity (here) is a really hard lesson to learn. I’m watching that happen.”
There are many reasons why the Mariners have dropped 19 of their past 26 games, some more salient than others. Let’s be honest, it’s not a short list. The offense has underperformed, the pitching staff has an ERA over 5.00 this month, and injuries have tested the club’s depth.
But, in the case of the Mariners, who were counting on Kelenic, Raleigh and Brash to help move the needle in 2022, the struggles this season has brought to each have certainly been contributing factors in Seattle’s recent run of misery.
The Mariners certainly aren’t alone in this regard.
Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft by the Tigers, cracked Detroit’s Opening Day roster having played only 121 games in the minors in 2021. He’s 22 and hitting .186 in the major leagues this season. Joey Bart of the Giants was a first-round pick in 2018, got 130 games in the minors in 2018-19 and made it to the big leagues in 2020, hitting just .233. He’s currently hitting .171 for San Francisco.
The Cubs’ Nick Madrigal was a hitting machine in the minors (.309 average) but only got 29 games in the big leagues in 2020. After a promising 2021 with the White Sox (.305 average in 54 games), he’s hitting .203 with the Cubs. Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. will turn 22 next month and has 497 career minor-league at-bats. He’s hitting .221 in the big leagues.
“A vast majority of young prospects have struggled to get over the hump. And I don’t think that’s common,” Dipoto said.
You don’t have to look too far to find young position players struggling in the big leagues. With offense down, and also velocity and stuff up from many of baseball’s top pitchers, it’s a tough time for young position players to find success offensively.
“I think it’s affected a lot of players and a lot of organizations,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “When you take a young prospect trending towards the big leagues and you remove the game from him — I know they were working out and stuff (at the alternate site) — but it hurts their physical development and also their mental development.”
Removing a full season from their development arc, as was the case in 2020, hit some players worse than others. And while there’s no way to absolutely quantify these struggles as…
Read More: Has the lost 2020 minor-league season caught up to the Mariners, others?