SATURDAY AM: There’s about $10M missing from the current theatrical marketplace this weekend.
Projections for Universal/Blumhouse/Miramax/Trancas’ Halloween Ends were expected to come in around $55M and now it’s looking like $43.4M. Clearly tracking didn’t account for the theatrical-day-and-date factor. Yes, it’s still a profitable gross against the film’s $30M production cost, and Uni’s theatrical distribution in its date execution and the studio’s marketing aren’t to blame here. Those departments didn’t do anything wrong. Also don’t point a finger at Paramount’s third awesome weekend for Smile (-35% with $12M; chances are genre fans are seeing both movies). I don’t even think Halloween Ends‘ C+ Cinemascore is a reason here (the lowest grade in the recent franchise subset trilogy from David Gordon Green).
However, as one razor sharp studio executive points out “It’s hard to underestimate the day-and-date factor”. Clearly, despite the fact that Peacock, on which Halloween Ends is also available, is in 15M paid subscriber homes (a low number next to the competition).
Riddle me this, Jeff Shell: So you take a branded film, deflate its optics by making it day-and-date with a headlined lower box office number in exchange for financials, streaming viewership and subscriber numbers which can’t be immediately publicly disclosed? Or will be disclosed weeks from now? Or will never? Or will be leaked to the Wall Street Journal (remember Trolls World Tour near $100M puffy number according to sources)? And this is done at a time when the theatrical part of the business is starving and lacking product, and when Wall Street is falling out of love with streaming? It doesn’t matter that Halloween Ends is going to gross more than Barbarian or Don’t Worry Darling. Of course it will, it’s a franchise movie, duh. The point is money is being left on the table. A reminder that the equity players in Halloween Ends are Blumhouse, Trancas and Miramax, who were bought out whole for this experiment, and Uni is only getting a global distribution fee.
Essentially, if you think about it, by not going completely theatrical, there’s about $5M which isn’t going back to Universal this weekend in pure film rental (roughly 50% of the pic’s missing $10M). Possibly more will be lost as day-and-date movies have a big drop (Halloween Kills plummeted 71% in weekend 2 and that was on Peacock, too). Halloween Kills in regards to its $49.4M opening generated under a 2x leg-out factor with $92M. Whatever NBCUni makes in Peacock subscription fees is theirs to keep, not share with exhibition. Right now there’s a deal going on where you can get Peacock for $19.99 a year. So is NBCUni banking on more than 250,000 subscribers signing up? Will those subscribers stay? Whose your demo by having Halloween Ends go day and date? Older people? Because the 18-34 bunch drove most of Halloween Ends business at 65%. The conventional wisdom is that streaming subscribers who sign up off movies don’t stick; they stick around for the series. Halloween Ends is 2 1/2 stars on PostTrak, 64%. If business slows tonight due to word of mouth, it will also be impacted at the same time on the OTT service. Not exactly a win-win.
How do you celebrate Halloween Ends as a win? Certainly not in viewership. First of all, the 30-day viewership on Halloween Kills was 2.8M in terrestrial Smart TV homes per Samba TV, and that’s not a lot next to the 4.1M who watched Matt Reeves’ Batman in the first seven days when it hit HBO Max after its 45-day theatrical run. When it comes to frosh streamers right now, it’s not about viewership, it’s about subscribers. Even if 10M people watched Halloween Ends on Peacock this weekend, how much of that was fueled by piracy and copied passwords? A hard analysis of money gained versus money lost needs to be made clear here. What’s the worth in diluting a…
Read More: ‘Halloween Ends’ Opening To $43M, Diluted By Peacock Day & Date – Deadline