CLEVELAND – The Winter Meetings begin in less than a week. The MLB offseason is already off and (not at all) humming. There’s no (shortage of) time to waste, so let’s get right to your Guardians questions (after I finish this doughnut), which have been edited for clarity and length.
If you got to be (team president) Chris Antonetti this offseason, what two moves would be at the top of your list to make? — Ethan S.
I’d switch the ever-present water bottle in my hand from Aquafina to Dasani and I’d share all my roster secrets with the thoughtful, Cleveland-based writer from The Athletic. OK, really, if it’s only two moves, I’d bolster the lineup with one significant position player upgrade and I’d try like hell to find another quality starting pitcher. I’m skeptical that the Brewers will move Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes (for now), but I’d certainly place a call a day to their new head of baseball operations, general manager Matt Arnold. That’s probably a long shot, so I’d settle for forking over a few prospects to land one lineup fixture and spending some cash on another short-term option, and I’ll keep this answer vague because surely everyone will fill this mailbag with questions about every potential Cleveland target, starting with …
Josh Bell is incredibly underrated and is the free agent I would most like to see the Guardians sign. Do you think he’s the right fit? — Andy L.
Sign me up. I’m going to assume Bell didn’t simply forget how to hit once he landed in San Diego at the trade deadline. Historically, he has hit for power and done so with a great walk rate and a healthy strikeout rate. He lowered his strikeout rate last season to 15.8 percent, which ranked 29th in the majors. So, he possesses traits this organization covets, and he’s a 30-year-old switch hitter who doesn’t have profound differences in his platoon splits. Before a September swoon with the Padres, he routinely, for years, ranked among league leaders in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He’d allow Josh Naylor to slide over to designated hitter at times, and maybe to the bench against some lefties. It makes sense to me.
I think we should trade Shane Bieber now. An insane year and the Cy Young Award have propelled his value, but there are still concerns (drop in spin rate, velocity, etc). What’s the best package we could get for an ace with two arbitration years left? — Matthew O.
Not enough to keep the team afloat as a World Series hopeful.
It’s complicated and nuanced (and therefore deserving of its own deep dive in the near future), but I get the sense the Guardians aren’t shopping Bieber like they did with other two-years-of-control-remaining stars of yore. In this case, the Guardians would be dealing him to a fellow contender, but they would need major-league talent in return. They aren’t trying to undo the progress they made in 2022, they already have a loaded farm system, and Bieber still pitched well enough with his diminished velocity last season to finish seventh in the American League Cy Young voting with his 200 innings, 198 strikeouts and 2.88 ERA.
Finding a team that matches up well is challenging. This type of deal is far easier to execute if it’s between a contender and a rebuilder. Go ahead, deal him to the Blue Jays for a package anchored by catcher Alejandro Kirk. Now how are you replacing Bieber in the rotation? Any upper-tier free-agent starter will cost more than Cleveland wants to spend. If anything, the Guardians should be targeting front-line starting pitching in a trade in an effort to upgrade from Zach Plesac or Aaron Civale.
This might be a different conversation if Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams and/or Tanner Bibee were a year or two further along in their development, which is why we should revisit this discussion next winter (or in July, if the Guardians are…
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