Republicans head into the fall still in position to gain enough House seats for a majority, but a tumultuous summer has made their advantage appear a little smaller today — with a trend so far pointing toward narrow gains instead of a wave. Our CBS News Battleground Tracker estimates Republicans at 226 seats today, down from 230 estimated in July. A majority of 218 is needed to win control.
While Republicans continue to lead with people who prioritize the economy, at least three things are tempering their overall advantage:
- Abortion rights: it’s still on voters’ minds, buttressing Democratic support and helping them with women in swing districts.
- Gas prices: most report prices in their area coming down, and with them, views of Biden’s handling the economy are up a bit – part of a slight rebound we see among the Democratic base.
- The extent to which this election is about anything other than a still-shaky economy, such as:
- Donald Trump — while midterm elections are often referenda on the sitting president, this one is about the former, too. For a majority of voters he’s a factor, either to support or oppose him. Democrats are winning voters whose vote is based “a lot” on how they feel about Trump.
- Republican nominees: both women and independents (key voting groups) are more likely to say it’s Republicans who’ve been nominating candidates they’d call extreme – more so than Democrats’ nominees.
What about Mar-a-Lago and the documents search?
- File it under “About Donald Trump.” The FBI search hasn’t directly changed many votes because of the sharp partisan splits over it, but then, it could be part of a larger issue holding back Republicans, as Donald Trump stays on voters’ minds.
- Trump is a big positive for his own partisans, but they were voting Republican anyway. Most rank-and-file Republicans want party leaders to stand with Trump here and not criticize him. But that sets up a challenge for the GOP because…
- Trump is net-negative for independents. Independents would prefer Republicans criticize Trump to support him on Mar-a-Lago. Half of independent voters name Trump as a factor in their vote, and by four to one, they’re voting to oppose him (far worse than Biden’s support-oppose ratio).
Most independents, like most Democrats, see the Mar-a-Lago search as an attempt to protect national security. They differ from Republicans, who see a political attack on Trump.
Abortion
Why it’s emerged as a big factor:
- There’s a widespread perception among women that if Republicans gain power, they’ll make restricting abortion a priority (65%), even more so than inflation (56%).
- More Democrats (77%) say abortion is “very important” than describe any other issue that way — it’s neck-and-neck with gun policy and ahead of the economy and inflation.
- By more than two to one, likely voters say their vote for Congress will be to support abortion rights rather than to oppose them.
- Motivation around the issue is one-sided: Republicans tend to say their vote isn’t about abortion, but most Democrats say the overturning of Roe boosted their support for their party’s candidates.
- It might help Democratic candidates with people on the fence: third-party and undecided voters for whom the overturning of Roe is a factor say it makes them want to support Democrats over Republicans by four to one.
Related: Watch key group of college-degree women
In the last two elections, White women with college degrees were critical to Democrats’ winning coalition, voting for them by double-digit margins. And then this year amid economic pessimism, Democrats slipped with this group.
Today we see Democrats rebounding: their lead with White college-degree-holding women has increased by seven points since July and is currently 13 points. It’s not back to 2018…
Read More: GOP seat lead shrinks as Biden approval ticks up — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll