Democrats interviewed for this story ranged from near-certain there will be a deal to fretful that anything will ever materialize.
“I am generally optimistic. I’ll believe it when there’s a deal,” said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) on Thursday. “I believe there is positive momentum, I believe there have been constructive conversations. But the specifics, the details, I think it’s best to let that work itself out.”
Democrats solved the easiest piece of their puzzle this week: finalizing a prescription drug pricing reform deal from last year, which both lowers prices and is expected to raise at least $250 billion in revenues. Democrats submitted that piece to the Senate parliamentarian for review, trying to ensure it doesn’t run afoul of the strict chamber rules that govern whether legislation can pass with a simple majority, known as budget reconciliation.
And they plan to soon submit an additional piece on a deal that extends Medicare solvency. Both those pieces are expected to have the support of all 50 Senate Democrats.
Shaving down the $555 billion energy package from the abandoned Build Back Better bill is proving tougher; Manchin is looking at energy spending of around $300 billion and ultimately new subsidies for electric vehicles could be cut, according to a second person familiar with the negotiations. Democrats are also trying to prevent health care premiums from skyrocketing this fall, and they need to detail tax increases and enforcement that would both pay for the bill and reduce the deficit, priorities of Manchin’s.
Roughly speaking, Manchin and Schumer are working toward legislation that provides $1 trillion in new revenues, half of which would go toward deficit reduction and half of which would go toward energy and health spending. Such a deal is hypothetical at the moment: The tax and energy pieces remain in major flux.
“Senator Manchin has repeatedly expressed his concerns about rising inflation, a pending recession and the state of American energy security. He continues to work in good faith to see if there is a pathway forward to shore up domestic energy production and reduce emissions, lower health care costs for seniors and working families, and ensure everyone is paying their fair share of taxes,” said Sam Runyon, a spokeswoman for Manchin.
Schumer declined to comment on negotiations but said recently that he and Manchin are “continuing to have very good and productive discussions.” Both men are keeping their talks close to the vest given their up-and-down history: Manchin and Schumer entered into a secret reconciliation agreement last July, Manchin rejected President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better bill in December and Manchin blanched at both Biden and Schumer’s attempts to weaken the legislative filibuster this year.
The Schumer-Manchin negotiations come amid a mixed backdrop for Democrats, who have a shot at keeping control of the Senate but are battling Biden’s unpopularity and public outrage over rising prices. Other pieces of Democrats’ agenda regarding child tax credits, education and senior home support are almost certain to be sidelined due to Manchin’s narrower aspirations.
Another possible casualty moving forward, according to multiple sources, are more federal subsidies for electric vehicles and new infrastructure spending to support them. Manchin has publicly panned over-reliance on electric vehicles as “stupid” when other countries control much of the supply chain for critical parts and consistently questioned more federal investment for the growing industry. Separately, car companies are asking for Washington to lift a cap on how many electric automobiles are eligible for existing tax credits.
Manchin is…
Read More: Dems’ climate and tax agenda to consume Congress in July