Arizona’s Democratic senator Mark Kelly frequently consults his “Latino kitchen cabinet”. In south Texas, the Democratic House candidate Michelle Vallejo hosted a neighbourhood quinceañera. And in Georgia, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams appeared on stage at La Raza’s Fiesta Mexicana. Across battleground states this midterm cycle, Democrats are urgently working to engage and mobilize Hispanic voters.
Their push comes two years after Donald Trump made surprising but substantial inroads with Latinos despite his defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. Democrats started to fear their party was losing its hold on a historically reliable cohort, while Republicans became hopeful.
Now Democrats and Republicans are engaged anew in a pitched – and expensive – political battle for Hispanic voters, an electorate both parties see as critical not only to their chances this November but also to their electoral hopes in the future.
Latino voters are a significant part of the electorate in battleground states likely to decide control of the US Senate, including Arizona, Nevada and even Georgia. They also form a powerful cohort in districts with highly competitive House races across California, Texas and Florida.
“Latinos get to decide the future of these states, which means they get to decide the future of our entire country with their vote,” said Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, president of the progressive youth voting group, NextGen America.
That wasn’t always the case. In 1970, just 5% of the US population was Hispanic. But now, they represent nearly one in five Americans. In the last decade, Latinos accounted for 52% of the nation’s population growth.
They also make up one of the largest and fastest-growing parts of the electorate. Latino voters cast roughly 16m votes in 2020, accounting for more than 10% of the total vote share.
Most Hispanic voters – 56% – say they plan to vote for Democrats in November, compared with 32% for Republicans, a New York Times/Siena College poll found. But the survey showed Democrats’ support was weaker than in previous years, primarily over economic concerns.
Similarly, a recent Washington Post/Ipsos poll found Democratic support among Latino voters lagged behind the 2018 level.
The economy and rising cost of living is by far the top issue for Latinos this year, yet the Times/Siena poll indicated that they are evenly split over which party they agree more with. And after the US supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade, several surveys – including the Post/Ipsos poll – have found that abortion rights are now also among the top voting issue for Latinos.
“What we’re seeing here is Latino voters very much concerned about their quality of life as they consider who they’re going to vote for and how they’re going to vote,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund (Naleo), which has commissioned a tracking poll of Latino voters this cycle.
‘Win enough’
Like the rest of the country, Latinos are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and divided over Joe Biden’s handling of the economy. Republicans see that as an opening to peel away disaffected Latino voters.
“Republicans are not going to win the Hispanic vote but they don’t need to,” said Mike Madrid, a veteran Republican strategist who co-hosts the Latino Vote podcast. “They’re just trying to win enough at the margins to win statewide contests.”
Madrid says neither party has an obvious grip on the future of the Latino electorate. He argues that Latinos’ preference for Democrats in the past has been driven by their opposition to Republicans’ embrace of hardline anti-immigrant policies – not loyalty to the Democratic party.