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China’s zero Covid policy is wreaking fresh havoc with its economy and daily life. Chengdu, a Southwestern metropolis of 21 million, has been largely locked down the past two weeks, in reaction to 1,800 reported infections.
That’s just the biggest of 70 cities enduring some form of restriction lately. Xi Jinping’s government shows no sign of changing course. “Senior health officials continue parroting what Xi said a few months ago,” says Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. “They don’t see any reason for shifting away.”
Beijing has backed itself into a formidable corner with reliance on domestic Covid vaccines whose shortcomings become more apparent as the pandemic evolves. Xi’s officials passed on a chance to import the more effective
Pfizer
–
BioNTech
vaccine early on.
Vaccination rates look world-class on paper: Some 90% of the population has had at least one jab of Chinese-produced Sinovac or Sinopharm, and 56% are boosted, according to Matt Linley, who tracks the disease globally as analytics director for U.K.-based Airfinity.
How well those shots work is another matter. Whether through secretiveness or lack of capacity, China has never delivered solid, peer-reviewed data for its vaccines, which rely on traditional “dead virus” technology.
A Hong Kong study, the best one out there for now, found, roughly speaking, that it took three shots of Sinovac to provide the same protection as two injections of the mRNA-based vaccines created by U.S.-based
Pfizer
(ticker: PFE) and its German partner BioNTech, or
Moderna
(MRNA).
The rest of the world is voting with its wallet as mRNA shots become more available. Exports of the Chinese vaccines, which dominated a year ago, have dwindled to almost nothing. Beijing’s top two customers, Brazil and Indonesia, failed to renew contracts when they expired.
China’s vaccination rollout left the most vulnerable elderly population for last. Health officials, and many physicians on the ground, doubted that the jab’s side effects were worth the risk, which seemed minimal until Covid’s more infectious Omicron variant began to spread. As recently as March, 40% of Chinese over 80 remained completely unvaccinated.
Critically, Beijing also blew its chance to import mRNA vaccine as a substitute. “A Chinese company signed a deal with BioNTech before Pfizer did,” says Dali Yang, a University of Chicago professor who is writing a book about China and Covid.. They never got an import license. Authorities instead gave free rein to online attacks on mRNA’s safety, making it harder to embrace the technology now.
China’s government, and vigorous pharmaceutical industry, have set their minds to playing catch-up. Elderly vaccination rates are rising, Yang says, and half a dozen companies are working on a domestic mRNA vaccine. That won’t turn the tide quickly, though.
The most advanced project, a remedy called ARCov or Walvax produced by startup Abogen Biosciences, is in phase III trials (in Indonesia and Mexico). It will come to market mid-2023 at best, with an estimated capacity of 400 million doses a year, Linley says. China’s population is more than 1.4 billion.
For now, Xi and…
Read More: China Is Stuck With Its Zero-Covid Policy Because of Weak Vaccines