Things appear to be looking up for Democratic Senate candidates.
As recently as a few months ago, Republicans were widely viewed as the favorites to take control of the Senate after the crucial US midterm elections this November. Given the current 50-50 split, Republicans only need to flip one seat to regain the majority in the upper chamber.
But now, the nomination of several controversial Republican candidates and a recent string of Democratic legislative victories have many election forecasters reconsidering their predictions. Democrats appear better positioned to keep the Senate now than at any other point of this election cycle, although experts emphasize that the outlook could significantly shift again before November.
Democrats have the benefit of a favorable Senate map this year, as they are not defending any seats in states carried by Donald Trump in 2020.
Democrats’ prospects have also been aided by Republicans’ failure to recruit top candidates in several states, including incumbent governors Doug Ducey of Arizona and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire. Instead, vulnerable Republicans were able to secure nominations in a number of key battleground states, often with the help of Trump’s endorsement.
In Georgia, the former professional football player Herschel Walker has attracted scandal for failing to acknowledge the existence of two secret children and abusing his ex-wife. Walker has acknowledged the abuse, saying he was suffering from mental illness at the time.
In Pennsylvania, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz has alienated voters because of his past dubious health claims and his longtime residency in New Jersey before deciding to run for office.
In Ohio, author JD Vance has struggled to gain his footing, most recently being criticized because his now-shuttered non-profit dedicated to combating opioid addiction promoted the work of a doctor with ties to the pharmaceutical industry.
As Republican candidates have stumbled, Democrats have enjoyed a wave of wins on Capitol Hill.
Last week, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a sweeping spending package that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in investments aimed at reducing the country’s planet-heating emissions and lowering Americans’ healthcare costs.
The supreme court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade, ending the federal right to abortion access, appears to be driving voters to the polls as well. On Tuesday, Democrat Pat Ryan won a hotly contested special congressional race in New York after running a campaign focused on protecting abortion rights.
Republican Senate candidates have indicated that abortion rights could be a weakness for them in the November elections. Blake Masters, who is running against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, altered his campaign website this week to delete some language expressing support for severe abortion restrictions.
All of those developments seem to be resonating in several key Senate races. According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have pulled slightly ahead in Ohio and Georgia, while the party’s candidates in Pennsylvania and Arizona have opened larger leads of eight to nine points.
“Retirements, recruitment failures and vicious primaries – coupled with Trump’s endorsements – have left Republicans with a roster of flawed and deeply damaged candidates, while Democrats are running strong, battle-tested incumbents and challengers who are backed by their own unique coalition of voters,” Christie Roberts, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a memo late last month.
Even senior Republicans have acknowledged that the tide has turned against them in the battle for the Senate. The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, said on Monday that the party’s chances of regaining control of the chamber were “50-50”.
“We’ve got a 50-50 Senate right now. We’ve…
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