Thursday is the first day free agents can sign with teams, which means the winter of Aaron Judge is upon us.
Several big-market teams plan to pursue Judge, but none of us know what he’s thinking. Judge and his agents have kept everything close to the vest, outside of Judge’s public comments that he’d like to remain a Yankee. I think that’s likely if the Yankees are willing to make him the biggest offer, but that’s not a slam dunk because when a player of his caliber hits free agency, records are usually broken.
Before the season, Judge wisely turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million extension from the Yankees. Now, I’m predicting he receives an eight-year contract worth approximately $330 million. (See my contract predictions for all the top free agents here.)
Judge, 30, just completed arguably the best single-season offensive performance in baseball history. He slashed .311/.425/.686 with an American League record 62 home runs, 133 runs scored and 131 RBIs. He was worth 10.6 WAR, according to Baseball Reference, and tallied a 211 OPS+. He had six outfield assists and no errors. He led the league in average exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate. Just staggering.
So, what uniform will this prodigious talent be wearing next season? A team could always surprise, but there are only five that I could see making a legitimate run at signing Judge in free agency. Here’s my ranking of the teams most likely to land him.
1. Yankees
Owner: Hal Steinbrenner
GM: Brian Cashman
The Yankees have made Judge their top offseason priority and they intend to make a strong effort to re-sign him. Judge is the face of the franchise and represents the Yankees organization and the city of New York as well as any player since The Captain, Derek Jeter, retired. The Yankees need Judge more than any other free agent they’ve had during Cashman’s 24-year tenure as general manager.
No one knows how far Steinbrenner will go to keep Judge, or if he’ll even match the best offer the slugger receives in free agency. But the Yankees have the most to lose if they don’t sign Judge. You can’t replace him. There just isn’t an offensive player of that magnitude available via free agency or trade, and any type of pivot will result in a much-lesser talent.
2. Dodgers
Owner: Mark Walters
President: Andrew Friedman GM: Brandon Gomes
The Dodgers potentially have a lot of money coming off the books, including the salaries of free agent Trea Turner; Cody Bellinger, who is arbitration-eligible and made $17 million this year, but they could trade or non-tender him; Justin Turner, who has a club option at $16 million with a $2 million buyout; and Craig Kimbrel, who made $16 million this year. That’s more than enough to land Judge. Imagine the Dodgers with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Judge, three of the most talented players in the game, at the top of the lineup.
The Dodgers could have Betts play center field if they move on from Bellinger and land Judge. Or Betts could play second base, if they move Gavin Lux to shortstop and don’t re-sign Trea Turner.
Historically, the Dodgers have preferred shorter-term contracts, and perhaps they could offer Judge a four-year deal in the $200 million range, a strategy they tried with Bryce Harper when he reached free agency and later signed with the Phillies. However, Judge is the type of player they would be willing to go to eight years for, like they were with Betts, who signed a 12-year, $365 million extension in 2020. They are a real threat to offer a deal that could persuade Judge to leave the Yankees.
3. Mets
Owner: Steve Cohen
GM: Billy Eppler
If Cohen really wants Judge, he has the resources to blow the competition out of the water. He could offer a contract of about $400 million, a range that I doubt the Yankees would match. Judge would fit perfectly in right field for the Mets, who could move Starling…
Read More: Aaron Judge free agency sweepstakes: Ranking the 5 teams most likely to sign him