Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian advisers have been arguing in recent days that they don’t want to cede any territory to Russia in the ongoing war in Ukraine. And though that view is widely held in Ukraine, they could be digging themselves into political quicksand.
Zelensky’s position, which he and his advisers have repeated countless times, is well-supported throughout the country, to be sure. Ukrainians overwhelmingly don’t want to give up any land to Russia—82 percent of Ukrainians are against it, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll conducted in May.
Zelensky has said Ukrainian fighters are capable of pushing back Russian forces, and even suggested they want to push Russia back to not just pre-February, 2022 bounds, but wind the clock all the way back to before Russia’s incursion in 2014, as well.
But if Zelensky and his advisers have to one day confront the realities of the war and actually approach a negotiation table once more and consider—or make—territorial concessions, that could leave Zelensky on the precipice of political turmoil, according to Steven Pifer, a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine.
“Zelensky is going to have to make some really difficult decisions between what kind of concessions to make versus protecting positions of principle, and what kind of concessions he might want to make that could be acceptable to the Ukrainian public,” Pifer told The Daily Beast. “I think that’s going to be a really, really hard decision if they get to a point in a negotiation.”
And yet, Zelensky knows it’s a matter of when, not if, he’ll be back at the negotiation table. Zelensky said last week he thinks the war will be decided on the battlefield, but admitted eventually he will be trying to make a deal once more.
“Victory must be achieved on the battlefield,” Zelensky said. But “any war should be ended at the negotiating table.”
Early on in the war, Ukrainian officials came to a negotiation table with the Russians to see if some kind of peace or deal could be reached. But Zelensky’s choice to entertain the idea that Ukraine could reach a deal with Russians has been met with reproach from Ukrainians questioning his judgment.
As the war has raged on and Ukrainians have fallen victim to Russian atrocities, Ukrainians are only likely digging their heels in.
“The attitudes have hardened in Ukraine, both in the government and among the people and so even if Zelensky wanted to make some of the concessions he might have been considering 10 or 11 weeks ago, I’m not sure that the Ukrainian population would accept that now,” Pifer said.
The consequences for Zelensky could play out in a number of ways. Politically, Zelensky’s standing has been shape-shifting since the beginning of his time in office. Before Putin invaded Ukraine in February, his domestic approval ratings were tanked. Even in the buildup to the invasion, world leaders questioned his judgment when he sought to deny the seriousness of Putin’s plans for Ukraine and didn’t call up his reserves quickly.
But when the war began, Zelensky met the moment, breaking out into the streets and fighting alongside his citizens. He became a people’s president.
And although he has his finger on the pulse of the Ukrainian people and the state of their resolve to beat back Russia, it’s not clear how long the afterglow of a political-wartime hero will float him, especially when he has to start making decisions that are politically fraught in reaching a real peace. And if Zelensky even approaches a negotiation table, his political future might be shot, according to Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine Forum in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.
“This could actually be the beginning of the end of Zelensky’s popularity if…