Who will win the National League Central division? We gathered a roundtable of MLB.com reporters to discuss:
Alyson Footer (@alysonfooter, moderator): This is going to be a great division race; not because the teams spent the offseason all trying to get better, but because no one did quite enough backtracking to fully fall out of contention. Clearly, the Nolan Arenado deal puts the Cardinals at an advantage. But are they the crystal-clear favorite?
Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand, executive reporter): I see no clear favorite in this division. None of them did a whole lot to get better this winter aside from the Arenado trade.
Will Leitch (@williamfleitch, MLB.com columnist): I understand arguments about the rotation, particularly if Jack Flaherty is not the ace they were expecting. I also have no idea who hits leadoff, especially if there is no DH. But I sort of think the Cardinals or MAYBE the Cubs were the favorites before the Arenado trade … and now I’m more certain of it. Know that this analysis is entirely fact-based and absent of any outward or emotional factors whatsoever, yep, yep, absolutely.
Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy, Brewers beat reporter): Some of the projection systems are surprisingly high on the Brewers. Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA has them taking the division comfortably with 89-ish wins, which shocked me. Then the Cubs, then Cardinals, then Reds. I think a lot of execs within the division would say St. Louis is the frontrunner, though.
Feinsand: The only thing I know for certain about the NL Central is that the Pirates are going to finish last. Ben Cherington has a tall task ahead of him in rebuilding this club. He’s a great executive and I have faith in him, but the 2021 version is going to be a bad, bad team.
Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian, Cubs beat reporter): The Cubs are returning as the reigning division champs, but they are now short an ace (Yu Darvish) and continuing to count on comebacks from their core hitters, who slumped across the board last season. They are counting on the small-sample effect — that Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Co. will live up to the back of their baseball cards. But, the offensive issues stretch over multiple seasons now. I don’t see a favorite for the division title right now.
Leitch: The problem is not just that no one got better. The problem is that the Reds and the Cubs are appreciably worse. The Brewers can reasonably argue that they had a ton of underachievers, and that there’s room for growth, but that there were no moves isn’t entirely the problem: The problem is that the two teams everyone was excited about last year, the Cubs (our last ride!) and the Reds (all-in for this year!) actively lost two of the best … five? pitchers in baseball?
Feinsand: I apologize for jumping all over the place, but the Reds seemed like a team that was going for it in 2020 with Trevor Bauer, but it didn’t happen. And now they have these contracts (Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos) without any real chance of winning the division.
Mark Sheldon (@m_sheldon, Reds beat reporter): I don’t think the Reds are tremendously worse though, Will and Mark. They knew they wouldn’t have Bauer back and they replaced Raisel Iglesias with likely Sean Doolittle as closer at a savings of $8 million.
Feinsand: Cincinnati will be a very important team in July. If Luis Castillo and/or Sonny Gray are available, I will be writing about them regularly.
Sheldon: If their offense can get off the mat from last year’s stink, they have a lot of offensive weapons and a rotation that opens with Gray and Castillo is nothing to sneeze at. But like each of the top 4 clubs, there’s a lot to dislike.
Leitch: I kinda get the Brewers being underappreciated by non-robots. When you look back on it, it kind of feels like everything that wasn’t Devin Williams went sideways on them. And they still reached the playoffs and almost reached .500. I think it’s reasonable to think that, had they had a full…
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