Putin's successor: why Alexey Dyumin is being seen as favourite to become next Russian president

A Kremlin cabinet reshuffle reported by Newsweek on May 15, 2024 moved Alexey Dyumin, 51, a former Kremlin security agent and governor of Russia's Tula region, into a role as a presidential aide with oversight of military-industrial complex matters — a significant advancement within the Kremlin hierarchy, according to the report. The same reshuffle saw Nikolai Patrushev, 72, the former FSB director, also appointed a Kremlin aide, while Patrushev's son Dmitry, 46, was promoted to deputy prime minister for agriculture.

Dyumin is regularly named by political scientists as one of the main contenders to succeed President Vladimir Putin, Newsweek reported, with Russian outlets and Kremlin insiders including him on informal successor lists as far back as 2022.

Analyst Julian Waller called the promotion "serious," telling Newsweek: "The Governor of Tula moving to the Kremlin...is all the signal" needed that Dyumin is favored. A separate analyst, Matthew Sussex, said the reshuffle could "encourage more direct competition between two individuals often floated" as potential successors — an apparent reference to Dyumin and Patrushev's overlapping positioning after the same personnel moves.

Dyumin's background

Born in Kursk, Dyumin served as a Federal Guard Service agent protecting Putin from 2000 to 2012, according to Newsweek. Putin appointed him governor of the Tula region in February 2016, a post from which he moved directly into the presidential aide role in the May 2024 reshuffle.

A further promotion, and a case for skepticism

Putin moved Dyumin again the same month, naming him secretary of the State Council in a statement published by the Kremlin, according to reporting carried by the Union Leader. That appointment further fueled speculation that Putin was grooming his former bodyguard as a successor -- Dyumin had by then been discussed as a potential heir apparent for close to a decade, per that coverage, owing to his long personal proximity to Putin dating back to his years as a Federal Protective Service bodyguard and his subsequent role leading Russia's Special Operations Forces during the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Not every analysis treated the succession narrative as settled fact, however. Chatham House published an analysis in June 2024 arguing the evidence available did not clearly show Putin was grooming Dyumin specifically, describing the succession speculation itself as running ahead of concrete confirmation. Recorded Future's research on potential successors similarly framed Dyumin as a strong candidate on the merits -- citing his personal loyalty to Putin, standing among Russian elites, his record in Ukraine-related roles, and his tenure as Tula governor -- while noting a Dyumin presidency would likely preserve Putin's existing political system rather than represent a break from it, per Recorded Future's published research.

What the reshuffle signals

Newsweek's report frames the promotion as ambiguous in one specific way: it elevates Dyumin's profile without itself confirming a succession plan. Sussex's comment about "more direct competition between two individuals often floated" implies the reshuffle raised Dyumin's and Patrushev's profiles roughly in parallel, rather than settling on a single frontrunner. Taken together with the State Council appointment and the more skeptical Chatham House analysis, the available reporting supports that Dyumin's institutional standing rose sharply in 2024, but does not resolve whether that reflects a deliberate succession plan or simply reward for loyalty and competence within Putin's existing system. The retrieved reports do not say whether Putin himself has commented on succession or on either man's positioning.

US In News compiled this archived account from contemporaneous coverage by Newsweek, the Union Leader, Chatham House and Recorded Future. It restores a story originally published on this site in 2024; figures are as reported at the time.