“It’s a very unusual situation where there are people in both parties who would likely clear the field, and for the first time in modern history we might not have a very competitive primary on either side,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who was a senior adviser on Sen. Marco Rubio’s presidential bid. “So it’s hard to think of what that would look like other than it being a brutally long election campaign.”
Inside the White House, for now, it’s all systems go for 2024. An official decision has not been made and may not for some time, according to three administration officials not authorized to discuss private deliberations. But Biden has repeatedly said he plans to seek reelection, and White House aides and Biden advisers are taking initial steps to mount a bid, believing he has a strong record and would overcome intraparty concerns about his age — on Election Day 2024 he will be just shy of 82 — and shaky poll numbers.
He has little choice to say otherwise; an admission that he was making himself a lame duck would dramatically curb his political power. Some Democrats have expressed private hope that Biden will make his final decision soon after this November’s midterms, giving the party plenty of time to prepare for what would likely be a wide-open primary if he opts not to run.
But presidents often wait until after the midterms to declare a reelection candidacy, in part because of the campaign finance restrictions that doing so would bring. On a personal level, moreover, acting promptly is not a Biden strength, sparking fear within the party that an announcement could be delayed until deep into 2023. The one factor that could hasten a decision and all but certainly ensure that Biden runs again: if Donald Trump says he will, too.
The current president has had repeated conversations with allies that he would need to run again to prevent Trump from reclaiming the Oval Office. Like he did in 2020, Biden views Trump as an existential threat to American democracy. And like he did in 2020, Biden thinks he’s the only one who can beat him. He plans to more aggressively target Trump as the midterm season approaches — both as a means of turning around his party’s standing for the midterms but also to set up a contrast for the future.
“This MAGA crowd is really the most extreme political organization that’s existed in recent American history,” Biden said on Wednesday.
But Trump is in no hurry to move first. He has hinted strongly that he will run again, but advisers don’t expect a decision until much closer to the midterms. Barely a year since leaving office in disgrace, Trump has enjoyed reclaiming his perch atop the GOP and playing kingmaker in the primary season — as reinforced by J.D. Vance’s victory Tuesday in the Ohio Senate GOP primary. But he has not committed even privately to running himself. And he has admitted that he is hesitant to announce soon, because once he does he would be restricted in how he could utilize and coordinate with certain political committees tied to him.
Even his closest allies are left to read the tea leaves. Trump’s enthusiasm to hold rallies, his flirtations with a 2024 run in media interviews, and his super PACs’ deep coffers, advisers say, are all signs he is likely to run again. But he also remains obsessed with relitigating 2020 more so than taking concrete steps to prepare for 2024. Relatedly, they add, he would likely jump into the fray if assured that Biden was running too.
“Biden running helps shape his decision. I think it’s an opportunity to avenge a loss and right a wrong, whereas if there was a younger candidate, I don’t know how motivated he’d be,” said a former adviser to Trump.
The potential rematch would have only one historical parallel. In 1888, President Grover Cleveland’s reelection bid was toppled by Benjamin Harrison. But four years later, Cleveland defeated Harrison in their rematch,…
Read More: A Biden-Trump rematch is increasingly likely. But neither side wants to move first.