After Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch were disqualified following post-race inspections last week at Pocono, Chase Elliott became the official winner. His fourth victory of the season extended his lead atop the NASCAR standings. Now, Elliott will head to the road course at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the 2022 Verizon 200 trying to add even more distance from the rest of the pack. The 2022 NASCAR at the Brickyard green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday on NBC (stream now on FuboTV).
Elliott has established himself as the best road racer in NASCAR with seven wins and 13 top-five finishes in 23 career road starts. He’s the 7-2 favorite in the 2022 Verizon 200 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. His teammate, Kyle Larson, is next in the 2022 NASCAR at Indianapolis odds at 11-2, while Ross Chastain is 15-2. Before scouring the 2022 Verizon 200 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR Brickyard predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR at Indianapolis picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.
In total, it nailed five of Larson’s wins during a historic season and has also gone 15-9 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on him again when he returned 14-1 for his win in St. Louis. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.
Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR at the Brickyard race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 Verizon 200 leaderboard.
Top 2022 NASCAR at the Brickyard predictions
One surprise: the model is high on A.J. Allmendinger, even though he’s a 16-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at the Brickyard odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Allmendinger’s career has been rejuvenated as a full-time Xfinity driver and a part-time Cup series driver for Matthew Kaulig.
Allmendinger leads the NASCAR Xfinity Series standings and has produced multiple top-10 finishes in 10 Cup starts in 2022. Last season, Allmendinger captured his second career Cup series victory on the Indianapolis Grand Prix Circuit despite starting eighth and leading just two laps. His previous win was also on a road course at Watkins Glen and he finished top 10 in his most recent road race at Elkhart Lake. See which other NASCAR underdogs to pick here.
And a massive shocker: Tyler Reddick, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2022 Verizon 200 starting grid. Reddick captured his first career victory in the last road race in the NASCAR Cup Series at Elkhart Lake and saw his fourth-place finish at Pocono improve to second after Hamlin and Busch were disqualified last week.
However, he also had a 35th-place finish in the prior road race at Sonoma and struggled at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course last season. Reddick finished 21st despite starting 11th and leading six laps during the race. The model doesn’t see a lot of value in playing him as the fourth favorite on Sunday. See which other…
Read More: 2022 NASCAR at the Brickyard odds, Verizon 200 picks, TV: Model shares